近50年来沭河流域天然径流演变特征分析  

Analysis of Change Characteristics of Natural Runoff at Shuhe Basin in Last 50 Years

作　　者：郝敏[1] 陆宝宏[2] 陆建宇[2] 刘欢[2] 左建[2] 臧冬伟 

机构地区：[1]北京市水利规划设计研究院,北京100048 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2015年第6期22-26,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC-50979023);水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201201026);江苏省博士后基金项目(1302029C);江苏省高校研究生科研创新计划(KYZZ_0144)

摘　　要：掌握沭河流域天然径流的演变特征是合理开发利用流域水资源的前提,基于沭河流域主要控制站——大官庄站1958~2000年的天然径流资料,采用差积曲线、趋势系数、基尼系数和Mann-Kendall法,并选取逐年累计均值、距平百分比、绝对变幅、绝对变化率等特征指标,分析了天然径流年际变化的丰枯性、阶段性、趋势性和年内分配的不均匀性、年内变化的趋势性。结果表明,大官庄站出现枯水年和丰水年的概率最大,出现平水年的概率最小;径流年际变化经历了3个丰水段、1个平水段和3个枯水段;年、汛期、非汛期及各月径流量均呈减少趋势,仅7月径流量减少趋势显著;20世纪70年代径流年内分配最不均匀,1980年代最均匀;1987年径流年内分配最不均匀,1974年最均匀;基尼系数、绝对变幅、绝对变化率呈减少趋势,但均不显著。The water resources of Shuhe Basin can be reasonable exploited and utilizated on the premise of that the change characteristics of natural runoff at Shuhe Basin are grasped. Based on the natural runoff data during 1958~2000 from Daguanzhuang station, the main-control hydrological station of Shuhe Basin, difference accumulation curve, trend coefficient, Gini coefficient, Mann-Kendall method, and some characteristic indexes such as progressive average value, a- nomaly percentage, absolute variation amplitude and absolute variation rate were used to analyze the high and flow varia- tion characteristics, phases and trends of inter-annual natural runoff, and the unevenness, variation trends of intra-annual natural runoff. The results show that the probability of dry year or wet year is the greatest and the probability of normal year is the lowest at Daguanzhuang station; the variations of inter-annual runoff have undergone three rich phases, one normal phase and three dry phases; the variation trends of yearly natural runoff in flood season, non-flood season and monthly natural runoff appear a non-significant decreasing trend, only the seventh monthly natural runoff has a significant decreasing trend; the intra-annual runoff distribution is most uneven in the 1970s and most even in the 1980s; the inter- annual runoff distribution is most uneven in the 1987 and most even in the 1974; the variation trends of Gini coefficient, absolute variation amplitude and absolute variation rate has a non-significant decreasing trend.

关 键 词：天然径流 演变特征 基尼系数 沭河流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]