2009～2012年山东省农业经济增长影响因素分析  

Agricultural economic growth factor analysis of Shandong province in 2009-2012

作　　者：张红彦[1] 刘迎洲[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学理学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《南方农业学报》2015年第4期717-721,共5页Journal of Southern Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50879070)

摘　　要：【目的】分析山东省农业经济增长影响因素，为山东省农业经济发展提供参考。【方法】结合C—D生产函数和横截面时间序列混合数据，利用主成分回归和岭回归分析2009-2012年各投入要素对山东省农业经济增长的贡献，并提出相应的对策建议。【结果】技术进步、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积是山东省农业经济增长的主要来源，其中，技术进步是关键因素。农药、化肥、农用塑料薄膜的使用已不是农业经济增长主要来源。农业劳动力、农作物播种面积的投入量减少，未能有效促进山东省农业经济增长。【建议】应加大农业科技投入力度、提高农业机械化水平、加强农田水利建设、发展生态农业，以促进山东省农业经济可持续增长。[Objective]Agricultural economic growth factor of Shandong Province was analyzed to provide references for the economic development in Shandong Province. [Method]Based on the mixed data from C-D production function and time series of cross section, contribution portion of each factor influencing agricultural economy of Shandong Province in 2009-2012 was analyzed using principal component analysis and ridge regression, after which corresponding suggestions were presented. [ Result]Technical progress, the total power of agricultural machinery and effective irrigation area were the main sources of agricultural economic growth, where technological progress was the key factor. Pesticides, fertilizers and agricultural plastic film were not the main sources of economic growth in agriculture. Agricultural workers and the amount of crop acreage were invested in decrease, which failed to promote Shandong Agricultural economic growth. [Suggestion] Agricultural scientific input, machinery, irrigation and eco-agrieuhure should be focused on for sustainable development of agricultural economy in Shandong Province.

关 键 词：农业经济 增长 影响因素 山东省 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]