中国老年长期护理服务需求评估与预测  

Estimation and Prediction of Demand of Chinese Elderly Long-term Care Service

作　　者：胡宏伟[1] 李延宇[1] 张澜[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学人文与社会科学学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2015年第3期79-89,127,共11页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：在人口老龄化的背景下，随着医疗和护理等服务成本不断攀升，加之家庭小型化、青年人口迁移等原因，老年护理成本带来的负担将不断加重，迫切需要对老年护理服务需求进行评估和预测。文章基于中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查（CLHLS）纵贯数据，运用马尔科夫链方法估算老年健康状态转移概率；同时结合人口预测结果，估算和预测不同年份、不同失能状态老年人的数量；结合全国老年服务调查数据，估算和预测老年护理服务需求。预测结果显示，2014~2050年老年护理服务潜在需求可能从3089．96亿元上升至4．27万亿元；有效需求可能从1172．42亿元上升至1．60万亿元；重度失能老人护理服务有效需求可能从276亿元上升至4944亿元，这是长期护理的重点人群。老年护理服务需求增速迅猛，服务供给体系和应对机制亟待建立。Under the background of ageing population,with the cost increase of medical services and care services,as well as the family miniaturisation trend and young population migration,the burden of long-term care will aggravate.It is urgent to estimate and predict the elderly long-term care demand.This paper uses Markov Chain method to estimate the transfer probability based on CLHLS longitudinal data.It also estimates the elderly scale in different health state over years that combine with population prediction,and to predict the long-term care service demand by using the National Elderly Service survey data.The prediction results show that,from 2014 to 2050,the latent demand of long-term care service will increase from 308.996 billion yuan up to 4.27 trillion yuan,and the effective demand will increase from 117.2 billion yuan up to 1.60 trillion yuan.The effective demand of severe disabled elderly as a focused group of long-term care will increase from 27.6 billion yuan to 494.4 billion yuan.It's urgent to build up a long-term care service supply system to meet the fast increasing demand.

关 键 词：老年人 长期护理 需求 评估 

分 类 号：R47[医药卫生—护理学]