基于多元回归的粮价变动影响主因分析  

Analysis of the main cause of grain prices fluctuation based on multiple regression analysis

作　　者：夏广宇 孟桂芝[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学应用科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2015年第5期23-26,共4页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：哈尔滨理工大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2013)

摘　　要：利用多元回归对粮食价格的趋势及主要原因进行分析.结果表明,我国粮食价格主要受粮食保护价格、化肥价格和政府销售贸易粮数量三大因素的影响.其中粮食保护价格对粮食价格影响最为显著,成正相关,由此得出对粮食最低收购价格的制定非常重要.化肥价格正向影响粮食价格,控制好化肥价格的波动等于变相控制住粮食的价格,因此需要密切关注化肥价格.同时随着政府销售贸易粮数量的增多粮食价格会有所下降,当粮食价格剧烈上涨时,政府适当地销售库存粮食可以起到稳定粮价的作用.基于分析,对国家粮食价格的政策提出一些建议.The variation trend of grain prices and its main reasons was analyzed by multiple regression, the results showed that China＇s grain prices are affected by the price protection policies, fertilizer prices and the number of national sales trade grain. The effect of the price protection policies is the most significant and positive correlation to grain prices, so conclude that the formulation of the minimum grain purchase prices is very important. Fertilizer prices are the impact of grain price, to control good fertilizer price fluctuations tantamount is equal to control food prices, so need to pay close attention to the price of fertilizer. The grain prices decline as the number of national sales trade grain increase, especially when the sharp rise in food prices, the government can sale grain to stabilize prices. Gave some suggestion on the national grain pricepolicy based on the results of the analysis.

关 键 词：多元回归 粮食价格 方差扩大因子 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]