环太平洋地震带巨震预测  

A prospective prediction of great earthquakes for the Circum-Pacific seismic belt

作　　者：秦四清[1] 李培[1] 薛雷[1] 李国梁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院页岩气与地质工程重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2015年第2期540-558,共19页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重点项目(41030750)资助

摘　　要：基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,提出了板间地震区初划原则与合理性检验原则,对环太平洋地震带划分了15个地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了这些地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:台湾岛-菲律宾群岛与琉球群岛-台湾岛地震区均已到达临界状态。巨震可随时发生;阿留申群岛-温哥华-旧金山-瓜达拉哈拉、墨西哥城、波哥大-阿里卡-瓦尔迪维亚、苏瓦-惠灵顿、新几内亚岛一所罗门群岛、爪哇岛-马鲁古群岛、北马里亚那群岛和北海道-堪察加地震区未来有巨震发生;圣萨尔瓦多一圣何塞地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;梅莱凯奥克地震区未来有大震发生;苏门答腊地震区2004年M_W 9.1级地震与查戈斯群岛地震区2012年M_W 8.6级地震均为主震事件;巴拿马城南部地震区是一个不低于M_W 7.2级地震危险区.本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考,以采取有效防震减灾措施.对上述震倒的分析表明:深源地震可能与浅源地震孕育机制类似,均为锁固段脆性破裂.In this study, we proposed the principles for preliminary dividing interplate seismogenic zones and testing its reasonableness based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and divided the Circum-Pacific seismic belt into 15 seismic zones base on these principles. In addition, we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in these zones from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event, and forecasted the future earthquake situation. The results showed that the seismic zones of Taiwan islandPhilippines as well as Ryukyu islands-Taiwan island have reached their critical states and great earthquakes can occur at any time; great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Aleutian islands-VancouveFSan Francisco- Guadalajara, Mexico City, Bogota-Arica-Valdivia, Suva- Wellington, New Guinea-Solomon islands, Java-Maluku islands, Northern Mariana islands and Hokkaido-Kamchatka; a large or great earthquake will occur in the San Salvador-San Jos6 seismic zone; a major earthquake will occur in Melekeok seismic zone; the Mw 9.1 earthquake occurred in Sumatra seismic zone in 2004 and the Mw 8. 6 earthquake occurred in Chagos Archipelago seismic zone in 2012 were main events; Southern Panama City is a dangerous seismic zone with no less than Mw 7. 2 earthquake. Our results provided a reference for the relevant departments of relevant countries in Circum-pacific seismic belt to take effective measures for earthquake disasters reduction. Analyses of the above cases indicated that like shallow focus earthquakes, deep focus earthquakes may have similar seismogenic mechanism and are resulted from brittle fractures of multiple locked patches.

关 键 词：环太平洋地震带 地震区 地震孕育周期 巨震孕育过程 锁固段 板间地震 深源地震 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]