应用捕获再捕获方法评估山东省死因登记漏报率水平  

Assessment of the underreporting rate of death cause data in Shandong province using capture-mark-recapture method

作　　者：张高辉[1,2] 郭晓雷[1,2] 鹿子龙[1,2] 孙建东 徐爱强[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东省疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病防治所 [2]山东大学预防医学研究院,山东省济南250014 [3]昆士兰科技大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2015年第5期325-327,共3页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(2013WS0168)

摘　　要：目的应用捕获-再捕获方法（capture-mark-recapture,CMR）评价山东省居民2012-2013年死因登记漏报率水平,为制定卫生策略提供依据。方法采用分层整群随机抽样法,将全省所有县（市、区）按照2012年死因登记系统报告死亡率分成5层,分层按比例随机抽取14个调查县（区）,从抽中的14个县（区）中各随机抽取3个乡镇（街道）,每个乡镇（街道）随机抽取10个村（居委会）。从当地公安、民政和村（居委会）搜集人口死亡情况,再与死因登记系统已报告的死亡资料进行比对,计算漏报率。结果本次漏报调查共收集到6 929个死亡案例,其中漏报1 556例,CMR法估算死亡案例为7 622例（95%CI：7 593~7 651）,2年合计漏报率为23.15%,2年合计漏报率差异有统计学意义（χ2=697.65,P〈0.01）。0~4岁组的2年合计漏报率为56.93%。男性合计漏报率为22.31%,女性合计漏报率为24.09%,两者差异无统计学意义（χ2=3.40,P〉0.05）。结论山东省死因登记存在明显漏报,且层间漏报水平不一致,低年龄段的漏报率较高,部分地区低年龄段的死因登记工作不够完善,应进一步加强死因监测工作质量,提高报告数据的完整性,同时需要分层调整死亡率,以更加准确客观地评价山东省居民死亡水平。Objective To evaluate the underreporting rate of death-cause data in Shandong province during 2012 to 2013 by capture-mark-recapture method and to provide the base for health strategy. Methods All counties were divided into 5 stratifications according the death rates of 2012, and 14 counties were selected, then 3 towns or streets were selected in each country, 10 villages or neighborhood committees were selected in each town （street）. The death data collected from security bureau and civil affairs bureau were compared with the reporting death data from the National Cause of Death Surveillance, and the underreporting rate was calculated. Results In present study, 6 929 death cases were collected, it was found that 1 556 cases were underreported. The death cases estimated by CMR method were 6 227 cases （95%CI： 7 593-7 651 ）, and the average underreporting rate was 23.15%. There were significantly differences between different stratifications （P〈0.01）. The underreporting rate in 0-4 years old group was 56.93%, the male underreporting rate was 22.31% and the female underreporting rate was 24.09%. There was no significant difference between male and female groups （P〉0.05）. Conclusion There is an obvious underreport in the cause of death surveillance of Shandong province, and the underreporting rates are different among the 5 stratifications. The underreporting rate is higher in 0-4 years old group, and the investigation of the death cause surveillance for young residents is not perfect in some countries. The investigation quality of the death cause surveillance should be improved, increasing the integrity of the report data and adjusting the mortalities in different stratifications for obtaining a accurate mortality in Shandong province.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获方法 漏报率 死因登记 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]