4种消化道肿瘤与饮用水关系的生存分析  

Survival analysis of four gastrointestinal tumors and drinking shallow groundwater in a basin in middle China

作　　者：许宁[1] 杨璐璐[1] 董梦萌 闫旭[1] 王媛媛[1] 窦燕生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100050

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2015年第3期231-234,F0003,共5页Journal of Environment and Health

摘　　要：目的探讨消化道肿瘤死亡风险与饮用浅层地下水的关系。方法选择我国中部某河流域范围内4省中的10个县作为研究区域,调查其食管癌、胃癌、肠癌、肝癌4种消化道肿瘤2007—2013年死亡和2013年现患情况,应用Kaplan-Meier法比较4种消化道肿瘤不同研究指标生存率差异,应用Cox比例风险回归模型进行生存时间的环境影响因素分析。结果 4种消化道肿瘤生存率差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),与其他3种癌症相比,肝癌患者的生存率更低;不同年龄组间生存率差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);饮用浅井水胃癌患者死亡风险是不饮用浅井水胃癌患者的1.218倍。结论4种消化道肿瘤死亡风险随年龄增加而增大,饮用浅井水可能会增加胃癌患者死亡风险。Objective To explore the relation between cancer death risk and drinking shallow groundwater in a basin perimeter in middle China.Methods 10 counties in 4 provinces in a river basin in middle China were chosen as the study field.Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the survival curves of four gastrointestinal tumors.Cox ＇s proportional hazards regression mode was used to compare the risk of the environmental impact factors.Results There was a remarkable difference（P〈 0.05） in the survival curves of four gastrointestinal tumors.Liver cancer survival rate significantly decreased.There was a remarkable difference（P〈 0.05） in different age groups.Gastric cancer death rate of drinking shallow groundwater groups was1.218 times of the non-drinking shallow groundwater groups.Conclusion Drinking shallow groundwater may increase the death risk of gastric cancer in the investigated area.

关 键 词：消化道肿瘤 生存分析 饮用浅井水 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]