不同水平分辨率BCC_CSM模式对中亚地面气温模拟能力评估  

Evaluation of the Performance of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model with Different Horizontal Resolution in Simulating the Annual Surface Temperature over Central Asia

作　　者：姜燕敏[1,2] 黄安宁[1] 吴昊旻[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093 [2]丽水市气象局,丽水323000

出　　处：《大气科学》2015年第3期535-547,共13页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201306020;国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)项目2010CB951001;国家自然科学基金项目41175086

摘　　要：本研究基于IPCC AR5（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change：Fifth Assessment Report）中BCC_CSM1.1 （Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1）和BCC_CSM 1.1 （m） （Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with a Moderate Resolution）气候模式的历史试验结果和CRU （Climatic Research Unit）资料,采用趋势分析和滑动平均等方法检验了两个版本BCC CSM模式对中亚地区1948～2011年平均地表气温、各热通量及其趋势的模拟性能,并讨论了不同模式水平分辨率的影响,结果显示：BCC CSM1.1和BCC_CSM1.1（m）两个模式均能够模拟出中亚地区显著增温以及感热通量、长/短波净辐射等要素由南向北递减的总体趋势.其中,BCC_CSM 1.1 （m）在对中亚地面年平均气温、感热通量和长/短波净辐射空间分布的模拟结果好于BCC_ CSM1.1,但对于气温标准差的模拟,BCC-CSM1.1模式略好于BCC-CSM1.1（m）.模式分辨率的提高,能够更好地表现出地形的影响,对气温和各热通量模拟性能改善较大,在中亚地区年平均气温的模拟中表现出了一定的优势.The temporal and spatial distributions of the mean annual surface air temperature and annual precipitation over Central Asia during 1948-2011 have been studied using trend analysis and moving average methods based on the Climatic Research Unit （CRU） dataset and the ,output of the historical experiments from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 （BCC_CSM1.1） and the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with a Moderate Resolution （BCC_CSM1.1（m）） for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC AR5）. Heat flux and radiation flux were imported to further assess the capability of the two BCC_CSM versions in simulating the climate over Central Asia. The results show that these two versions effectively simulated the significant upward trend and north-south increasing characteristic of sensible heat flux and radiation flux over Central Asia. The performance of BCC_CSM1.1（m） in simulating the spatial distribution of air temperature, heat flux, and long/short radiation flux improved significantly compared with the results of BCC_CSM1.1. However, the performance of BCC_CSM 1.1 in simulating the spatial distribution of the standard deviation of air temperature was better than BCC_CSM1.1（m）. The improvement in model resolution more clearly demonstrated the topographic effects and improved the model simulation performance for heat flux and radiation flux. The high-resolution model displayed advantages in simulating the air temperature over Central Asia.

关 键 词：中亚 地面气温 水平分辨率 BCC_CSM 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]