SRESA1B情景下德令哈盆地2016-2075年气候变化预估  

Projections of climate change for the period 2016-2075 in Delingha Basin under SRESA1B scenarios

作　　者：刘波[1,2] 刘金胜[1,2] 束龙仓[1,2] 李修仓[3] 鲁程鹏[1,2] 刘晓雪[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2015年第2期232-238,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41301017);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120094120019)

摘　　要：利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式SRES A1B气候情景下预估2016-2075年间60 a的气温及降水资料,通过分析其总体趋势、年代际变化及突变特征,研究德令哈盆地未来气候的变化趋势。预估结果显示：2016-2075年,德令哈盆地气温将可能呈上升趋势,四季及年平均气温的变化总体上基本保持一致,上升幅度在3~4℃之间,其中夏季和全年的增温速率相对较大;降水量在未来60 a将基本保持平稳,有微弱的下降趋势,年际间变化以夏季最为显著,降水不均将易导致极端气候事件的发生;无论气温还是降水,预估未来都将有突变发生,气温将在2035年前后发生一次突变,降水量则分别在2030 s末和2040 s初各发生一次突变。Delingha Basin is located in the northwest of China, which is closed drainage system. The water re- source in the basin is mainly consumed by evaporation from land and vegetation. This kind of consumption is closely related to meteorological conditions. Therefore, the study on the characteristics of temperature and precip- itation changes and trends may contribute to the protection of local environmental. Based on the data analysis of temperature and precipitation in SRES A 1B scenario of ECHAM5/MPI-OM module from 2016 to 2075, by statis- tical methods such as linear trend analysis, running average and running t method, meteorological variation trends of the whole period, decadal variations and the abrupt changes were analysed. Finally, the climate change trend in Delingha Basin in the same period was derived. The results indicate that the temperature in Delingha Basin shows a rising trend from 2016 to 2075. The seasonal and yearly change show the same trend in general. Temperature of both scale will increase 3-4 degrees. In addition, the increase of temperature in summer will be relatively greater and so will the yearly change. Precipitation in the future 60 years will keep steady, showing a slight downward trend. The interannual variation of precipitation in summer will be the most significant, so we should be aware of the extreme climate events. There will be obvious abrupt changes in both temperature and precipitation. The abrupt change of temperature will happen near the year of 2035, and that of precipitation will happen in the end of 2030s and the early of 2040s respectively. The results roughly reflect the trend of climate change in Delingha Basin, which can provide scientific guidance for local development in a certain extent.

关 键 词：气候预估 德令哈盆地 气温 降水 气候突变 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]