评估师经验、收益信息透明度对估值判断影响的实验研究  

Experiment Study about Effects of Valuer's Experience and Earnings Opacity on Quality of Valuation Judgment

作　　者：张志红[1,2] 田昆儒[1,2] 李香梅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学会计学院,250014 [2]天津财经大学工商管理博士后工作站/商学院,300222

出　　处：《会计研究》2015年第4期27-32,95,共6页Accounting Research

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2014M551020);国家社会科学基金项目(12CGL029);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2012GM012);山东省社会科学规划项目(13DGLJ09)资助

摘　　要：估值过程是评估师进行专业判断和决策的过程,提升评估师的估值判断水平是改进估值质量的根本。基于此,利用实验方法研究了评估师经验和收益信息透明度对评估师估值判断的影响。研究发现,有经验的评估师其估值判断的准确性优于经验不足的评估师,而且经验丰富者能有效识别收益透明度的变化,即能有效避免框架效应。另一方面,收益披露透明度对于经验不足的评估师影响显著,使得启发式的认知偏差影响了估值判断,而对于经验丰富者则没有这种效应。研究所提供的实验证据,从认知心理学视角为避免估值判断偏误提供了识别途径,从而可以有效提升评估师的估值判断水平。Valuation means the process of valuer's professional judgment and decision. The level of valuer's professional judgment is essential to improve the quality of valuing. So the effects of valuer's experience and earnings opacity on valuers' valuation judgment are investigated and analyzed with experiment design method. The valuers are randomly sampled from the appraisal firms all over China. According to the experiment results,the proposed hypotheses are all proved to be true. The accuracy for the experienced group are better than the group of inexperienced valuers. And experienced appraisers can identify the earnings opacity' changes in the financial reports which can avoid the framing effects. On the other hand,there are significant effects of earnings opacity to inexperienced valuers. Then valuation judgment bias occurs resulting from the heuristic cognitive. All experiment evidences provide an identifying route for avoiding bias of valuation judgment from the point of cognitive psychology. Then professional judgment level of valuers on valuation can be effectively improved.

关 键 词：估值判断 评估师经验 收益透明度 实验设计 

分 类 号：F233[经济管理—会计学]