基于区域气候与城市发展耦合模型的气候变化适应度评价——以上海市为例  

Adaptability Assessment of Climate Change Based on Regional Climate System and Urban Growth Coupling Model——A Case Study of Shanghai

作　　者：李响[1] 钱敏蕾[1] 徐艺扬 陆君[1] 王祥荣[1] 谢玉静[1] 樊正球[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学环境科学与工程系,上海200433

出　　处：《复旦学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期210-219,共10页Journal of Fudan University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AZD075);上海市气象局合作项目(KBH1929513);复旦大学985三期项目

摘　　要：借鉴城市化和生态环境耦合模型,选取最直观的气温变化衡量区域气候变化,以经济、农业、社会和资源环境系统作为城市发展各项子系统,构建区域气候与城市发展的耦合模型;在分析区域气候与城市发展各项子系统耦合关系的基础上,创新的提出差异化评价标准和办法;并以上海市为例,基于50a上海市气温变化特征分析,评估上海市2000-2012年气候变化适应度.研究表明：近50a上海市气温显著上升;2000-2012年,经济、社会和资源环境系统均呈现正向稳定发展状态;由于城市发展导致上海市耕地面积和种植面积不断萎缩,农业系统因此呈现衰退状态;受区域气温波动变化影响,经济、社会、资源环境系统的适应性呈现波动变化,但总体呈现为适应型;农业系统呈现不适应状态,主要为人为原因,受气候变化影响相对较小.By means of the coupling model of urbanization and eco-environment, a coupling model of climate systemand urban growth was established. Changing of temperature was used to represent regional climate change.Economy, agriculture, society, resource and environment were taken as the subsystem for adaptability assessmentto climate change. Based on the analysis of coupling relationship between climate system and other subsystems, adiverse evaluation system was firstly established to assess the adaptability. Based on the analyze of climate changefeatures in Shanghai during 1960-2012, we assessed the adaptability of Shanghai to climate change. Resultsshowed that, in the near 50 years, Shanghai has experienced a remarkable increase of temperature. During 2000-2012, economy, society and resource ＆ environment in Shanghai all have been improved. However, agriculturesubsystem declined since farmlands had been occupied for construction. Effected by the changed .climate, theadaptability of economy, society and resource environment subsystem fluctuated in recent years. Overall,economy, society and resource environment system in Shanghai adapted to climate change. However, theagriculture subsystem was unadaptable to climate change. The main reason was human intervention, which washardly related to climate change.

关 键 词：区域气候变化 城市发展 适应度 耦合关系 上海市 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]