有功分级平滑修正风电出力短期预测精度  

Active Power Hierarchical correction the short-term prediction accuracy of wind power

作　　者：张斌[1,2] 王筱[3] 晁勤[1,4] 刘杰[5] 刘清贵[1] 胡续坤 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830008 [2]国网新疆电力公司电力科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]国网新疆电力公司乌鲁木齐供电公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [4]克拉玛依理工学院(筹建),新疆克拉玛依834000 [5]国网新疆电力公司检修公司,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《可再生能源》2015年第6期859-864,共6页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51267020);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金博导类资助课题(20126501110003);国家国际科技合作专项(2013DFG61520)

摘　　要：为达到国家电网要求的风电场短期预测（日前）误差不超过25%的技术规定,文章以15 min时间间隔的风电实测和预测功率历史数据为基础,从横向误差和纵向误差的角度,提出了一种利用横向一次修正和储能系统二次修正的有功分级平滑来提高风电功率短期预测精度的方法。通过对误差时间序列进行统计分析,得出所需的横向时间向量将0-24 h预测功率前后平移,实现初级修正;运用储能系统装置,制定储能系统能量管理策略,有效地补偿风电功率的纵向误差,实现二级修正。以风电场的典型历史数据为例,经过两级有功分级修正,对风电功率预测进行较精确评估,同时做了简易的经济评价。In order to meet the technical regulations of State Grid that short-term wind power prediction error（day-ahead）does not exceed 25% of the technical provisions, this article is based on measurement and prediction wind power historical data in the time scale 15 minutes, from the perspective of the transverse and longitudinal error, put forword a kind of methods to improve the wind power short-term forecast accuracy by Active grading smooth through first transverse correction and Energy storage secondary correction. Through the statistical analysis of error time series, concluded the need horizontal time vector, and then translation 0-24 hours predictive power back and forth, achieve primary revision. design energy storage system energy management strategy to meet effective vertical wind power compensation error, implementation secondary revision. Taking the typical wind farm historical data as an example, after two stages of active classification correction, realization of wind power prediction for a more accurate assessment, at the same time, do a simple economic evaluation.

关 键 词：风电短期预测精度 横向误差 纵向误差 有功分级修正 储能系统 

分 类 号：TK83[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]