我国汽车产业与机动化发展特征研究  

Study on the Development Relationship between Automotive Industry and Motorization in China

作　　者：巩建国 戴帅 朱建安 刘金广 

机构地区：[1]公安部道路交通安全研究中心,北京100062 [2]现代城市交通技术江苏高校协同创新中心,南京210096

出　　处：《综合运输》2015年第4期18-22,共5页China Transportation Review

基　　金：公安部重点研究计划项目--城市停车管理政策及关键技术研究(201302ZDYJ013);公安部公安理论及软科学研究计划项目立项--城市道路交通组织优化理论与方法研究(2014LLYJGAJT057)

摘　　要：文章从汽车价格、汽车产销和汽车产业政策三个方面探讨了汽车产业与机动化发展的关系。应用弹性分析、相关性分析方法研究了机动化水平与经济水平、汽车销售价格、居民收入水平等因素的关系,结果显示经济增长更加促进私人汽车保有水平的提高,居民收入和汽车价格共同决定机动化水平。运用相关性分析研究了汽车产销与机动化水平的关系,发现汽车产销规模、客货车型结构等因素与机动化总量和结构高度相关。运用聚类分析探讨了汽车产业政策对机动化发展阶段的影响,表明汽车产业政策是影响机动化发展阶段性特征的关键因素。This paper investigates the relationship between automotive industry and motorization in China from the aspects of vehicle price, vehicle sales, and automotive industry policy. Firstly, the correlation relationship between the motorization and the level of economic, price of vehicle sales, and household income is analyzed by the method of elastic and correlation analyses. The result shows that the economic growth further promote the level of private car ownership. It is also found that the degree of motorization is determined by both household incomes and car prices. Secondly, the relationship between the vehicle sales and motorization is investigated by correlation analysis. The result indicates that the variation characteristics of size and structure between the vehicle fleet and vehicle sales are highly consistent. Finally, the impact of the automobile industry development policy on motorization stage is studied by clustering method. It is proved that the automotive industry policy is the key factor to determine the motorization stage.

关 键 词：汽车产业 机动化 产业政策 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]