基于贝叶斯方法的南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼渔业的风险评估与管理  

Risk Assessment and Management for The Southern Atlantic Albacore(Thunnus alalunga)Fishery Based on Bayes Method

作　　者：张魁[1] 刘群[1] 廖宝超[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第6期51-56,共6页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(201022001)资助

摘　　要：使用ASPIC与CEDA软件对南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼的产量和标准化的CPUE数据进行分析,得到了环境容量K、可捕系数q和内禀增长率r的点估计。以此作为3个参数的先验信息,应用MCMC算法计算3个参数的后验概率分布。根据种群参数的后验概率,设定不同的捕捞策略,对该群体进行风险评估。结果表明,1985—2005年南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼经历了轻度的过度捕捞,2005年之后开始恢复,目前这个群体的资源状态较好,仍需加强管理使其可持续发展。建议产量控制在27 970t以内,捕捞死亡率控制在0.15左右。To obtain the point estimates of model parameters （i.e.r,K and q）,CEDA and ASPIC were applied to the catch and standardized CPUE data of the southern Atlantic albacore stock.Using the point estimates as prior information,MCMC algorithm was applied to computing the posterior distribution of the parameters.This study set eight harvest strategies for the risk assessment for this stock.Results showed that this stock has experienced overfishing from 1985 to 2005;after that,this stock has rebuilt gradually.Although the present condition is good,it is recommended that necessary actions should be taken to keep the stock sustainable.It was concluded that the total allowable catch of 27 970t and the harvest rate of 0.15 seem to be the best management measures.

关 键 词：贝叶斯 长鳍金枪鱼 CEDA ASPIC 捕捞策略 风险评估 

分 类 号：S932.4[农业科学—渔业资源]