全球2℃温升目标下各国碳配额的不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis of National Carbon Permits under 2℃ Target

作　　者：王利宁[1,2] 陈文颖[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学现代管理研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第6期30-36,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑项目(编号:2012BAC20B01);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(编号:12JJD630002)

摘　　要：鉴于全球温升目标到各国减排承诺转换过程中面临的各种不确定性,本文以IPCC第五次评估报告中2℃温升目标对应的排放空间为基础,探讨了不同排放路径、基准情景、分配方案及方案关键参数的选择对各国碳配额的影响。研究得出:较发展中国家,分配方案的不同会给发达国家碳配额带来更大不确定性,且当前排放水平与全球平均值差异越大的国家,不确定性越大;分配方案中关键参数的不同也会对结果有一定影响,如趋同类方案中的趋同时间、历史责任方案的累积起始年和逐步参与方案的参与阈值等,且累计起始年越早、参与阈值越高对发展中国家越为有利;全球允许碳排放空间对各国碳配额有较大影响,发达国家的碳配额(多方案的均值)呈现随全球排放空间增大,增幅更大的特征,而发展中国家的此变化趋势则相反;除部分有参与阈值的方案外,基准情景引起的不确定性相对较小。尽管存在各种不确定性,但可以确定的是在全球2℃温升目标下,各国未来的碳配额是非常有限的,我国也不例外,故我们应着眼未来、长远规划,同时当前应做好低碳能源布局,为应对气候变化夯实基础。Due to the uncertainty associated with the transition from global warming target to national commitments on emissions reduction, this study analyzed the impacts on national carbon quotas with various emission pathways, baseline scenarios, allocation schemes and parameters associated with these schemes, which are based on the emissions capacity as a result of the global warming target of two-degree temperature increase identified in the Fifth Assessment Report （AR5） of IPCC. The results indicated that： （~） various schemes for quota allocation resulted in higher uncertainty for developed countries than developing countries, and the uncertainty was even higher for countries that have greater differences between their current emissions and the global average ; （~） within the same allocation scheme, quota allocation varied from the selection of key parameters, such as, convergence time, starting year for historical responsibility and participation threshold, and developing countries would obtain greater carbon quotas with earlier starting year for responsibility and higher participation threshold; （~） The global carbon allowable capacity had a great impact on each country＇ s carbon permits, and with the increase of global capacity, it would result in a larger increase in quotas for developed countries than developing countries; （~） The uncertainty in quota allocation brought by the differences in baseline scenarios is relatively low under most allocation schemes, expect those schemes with thresholds. Despite of the uncertainties, it is certain that future emissions spaces for all countries including China are limited under the global warming target of two-degree temperature increase. We should conduct long-term planning on low-carbon development, develop low-carbon technologies, and invest on related research concurrently.

关 键 词：气候变化 分配方案 不确定性 温升目标 IPCC第五次评估报告 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学] X24[政治法律—外交学]