基于碳排放清单编制的低碳城市规划技术方法研究  被引量:41

Methods for Low-Carbon City Planning Based on Carbon Emission Inventory

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作  者:王雅捷[1] 何永[1] 

机构地区:[1]北京市城市规划设计研究院,北京100045

出  处:《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年第6期72-80,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘  要:低碳城市规划是城市转型发展、低碳发展的重要保障,是对传统城市规划学科知识的拓展,目前没有成熟通用的方法。本文以北京市低碳城市发展规划的相关研究为基础,提出低碳城市规划技术主要包括碳排放清单编制与核算、规划碳排放情景分析、城市低碳发展路线图、以及低碳规划策略选择与政策制定等。低碳城市规划技术的核心在于将城市规划要素纳入碳排放清单框架,使碳排放核算与规划策略、城市终端活动相关联。以IPCC碳排放清单框架为基础,将统计数据中的国民经济部类能源消费数据拆分、重组,转化为生产、建筑、交通三个部门的能源消费数据,再转化为承载终端能源消费活动的规划用地分类,实现碳排放清单框架的二次转换。在能源消费数据的拆分、重组过程中,主要采用Kaya公式变形的方法,将规划要素、终端活动、能源供应和用能效率等因子纳入计算公式,进而纳入碳排放计算框架,实现碳排放-规划要素-终端活动的关联。在此基础之上,还可以分析规划策略的碳减排潜力和贡献率,确定规划策略的优先序。这些技术手段是实现低碳城市规划科学化、定量化和可考核的重要保障。根据对北京市城市能耗和碳排放的核算分析,可以发现北京市城市能耗与碳排放总量仍呈增长趋势,但已经和经济增长脱钩。采用"十二五规划"已经确定的政策措施,能够实现国家规定的节能减碳目标,北京应当提出更加严格的规划目标。研究提出强化低碳情景目标,万元GDP碳排放强度降低到2005年的约三分之一,而碳排放总量较2009年仅略有增长。通过对规划策略的碳减排潜力分析发现,在产业、建筑、交通三个部门中,现阶段产业部门节能减碳的潜力仍然最大,未来随着产业结构的调整,建筑、交通将成为减碳的主要部门。在各类减碳策略中,总体规模、产业结构�Low-carbon city planning, as an extension of traditional urban planning, is important for urban development transformation in a low carbon manner. However, recognized practices have yet to be established for low-carbon urban planning. This paper was based on relevant studies of low-carbon urban planning in Beijing and puts forward methods for low-carbon urban planning, including preparation of current and proposed carbon emission inventories, analysis of proposed carbon emission scenarios, city low-carbon development roadmap, and selection of strategies and forumlation of policies for low-carbon development. The key technique is to include the planning factors into carbon emission inventory framework, connecting carbon accounting with planning strategies and urban end uses. Using carbon emission inventory from IPCC as a basic framework, the energy consumption data from Year Book was split and rearranged into three sectors, industrial, building and transportation, connecting with energy consumption end uses. Then the inventory framework is further transformed into a more planning oriented one, relating to different land uses. Kaya equation was adopted in the process of inventory transformation, in order to integrate factors such as planning, energy consumption end use, energy supply, and energy efficiency into the equation. Then these factors are included into inventory framework, resulting in the connection of carbon emission, planning factors and energy consumption end uses. Based on the inventory, the contribution and sensitivity of planning factors were analyzed to determine the priorities of planning strategies. These methods are important to scientific, quantitative and appraisable low-carbon urban planning. According to carbon emission inventory of Beijing, total energy consumption and carbon emission tended to increase through these years. However carbon emission growth was already decoupled from economic development. Using existing methods and policies of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the national target of

关 键 词:低碳城市规划 碳排放清单 技术方法 北京 

分 类 号:F416[经济管理—产业经济]

 

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