利率市场化、价格竞争与城市商业银行风险——来自面板数据门限模型的经验证据  

Interest Rate Marketization,Price Competition and the Risk Level of Municipal Commercial Banks of China: Empirical Evidence from the Threshold Panel Data Model

作　　者：彭星[1] 李斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《商业经济与管理》2015年第5期68-78,87,共12页Journal of Business Economics

基　　金：国家软科学重大研究专项"科技促进经济发展方式转变的评价方法和体系研究"(2011GXS1B001);教育部新世纪人才支持计划"环境机制设计驱动中国工业发展方式转变的路径研究"(NCET-12-0174)

摘　　要：文章基于2008-2013年中国24家城市商业银行的相关数据,在将银行风险划分为收入波动性、破产风险、资本化水平及不良贷款风险四个方面的基础上,运用动态面板系统GMM模型与面板数据门限模型实证检验利率市场化及价格竞争对城市商业银行风险的影响。研究结果表明,存贷利率市场化引致的银行价格竞争加剧均会加大城市商业银行收入波动性和破产风险,也不利于资本化水平的提高,并会加大不良贷款风险。利率市场化对城市商业银行风险的影响存在非线性价格竞争门限效应,只有当利率市场化引致的价格竞争程度超过门限值时,其才会明显加大收入波动性,而当价格竞争适度时反而会降低收入波动性。By using data of 24municipal commercial banks in China from 2008-2013, this paper adopts the GMM model and the threshold panel data model to empirically study the effect of interest rate marketization and price competition on the risk of municipal commercial banks by dividing the bank risk into the four aspects as income volatility, bankruptcy risk, the capitalization level and the bad credit risk. The results show that the increasing bank price competition caused by the marketization of interest rate of deposit and loan will increase the income volatility and the bankruptcy risk of municipal commercial banks and will not be conducive to raise the level of capitalization and will increase the risk of bad loans. There exists the effect of nonlinear price competition threshold of interest rate marketization on the risk of city commercial banks and only when the price competition caused by the marketization of interest rate exceeds the threshold value, the income volatility will significantly increase. Otherwise the marketization of inter- est rate will reduce income volatility if the price competition is moderate.

关 键 词：利率市场化 价格竞争 银行风险 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F830.33[经济管理—金融学]