过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响研究  

Highlights of the Research Project on the Forcing and Impacts of the Warm Periods in the Past 2000 Years

作　　者：葛全胜[1] 郑景云[1] 方修琦[2,1] 杨保[3] 刘健[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 [4]南京师范大学地理科学学院教育部虚拟地理环境重点实验室江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《中国基础科学》2015年第2期22-26,F0002,共6页China Basic Science

基　　金：全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB950100)

摘　　要：本文简要介绍了"过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响研究"项目取得的主要进展:(1)新建了40余条高分辨率气候序列,显著提高了过去2000年中国气候变化序列的覆盖度和时间分辨率;(2)揭示了暖期气候的空间协同特征及历史典型暖期与20世纪暖期气候格局的差异;(3)诊断了自然驱动的历史暖期与温室气体驱动的20世纪暖期形成机制的差异;(4)量化分析了过去2000年气候变化对中国社会经济的影响与响应过程,辨识了冷、暖期对中国社会经济影响的主要差异。上述研究成果增进了对年代至百年尺度气候变化特征与机制的认识,对我国适应未来气候变化具有参考价值。Progresses in the research project of a study on the forcing and impacts of the warm periods in the past 2000 years, which funded from China Global Change Research Program, are summarized with highlights as fellows. （1） More than 40 new high-resolution climate series have been reconstructed, which improves the spa- tial coverage and the time resolution of the climate se- ries in the past 2000 years of China. （2） The spatial synergistic characteristics of warm periods and the differences between the spatial patterns of the Medieval Warm Period and the current warm period have been re- vealed. （ 3 ） The difference between the ＂thermostat mechanism＂ for the Medieval Warming Period forced by increased solar radiation and the ＂stabilization mecha- nism＂ for the warming in the 20th century forced by in- creased greenhouse gases has been identified. （4） The climate change impact on social-economic system during Chinese history and the adaptation, particularly on the differences between the impacts of warm periods and the cold periods were identified quantitatively. These pro- gresses could not only improve the understanding on the characteristics and mechanisms of decadal to centennial climate change, but also provide valuable references for the adaptation to climate change in the future.

关 键 词：过去2000年 典型暖期 影响适应 

分 类 号：P532[天文地球—古生物学与地层学]