我国入境旅游流季节性特征及其时空演变研究——基于22个热点旅游城市面板数据的实证分析  

A Research on Seasonal Characteristics and Temporal-spatial Variation of Inbound Tourism Flow——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 22 Hot Tourist Cities

作　　者：冯学钢[1] 黄和平[1] 邱建辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学商学院,上海200241

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2015年第6期1-9,187,共9页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJY008)

摘　　要：文章以我国22个热点旅游城市为研究对象,选取2006-2013年各城市月度入境旅游面板数据(旅游人次),对季节性时空分布规律及影响因素进行探讨。首先,根据入境旅游人次月度均值,对我国22个热点旅游城市的淡旺季进行划分,运用重心模型、基尼系数、变异系数等定量分析方法对各个热点旅游城市的季节性时空分布差异进行深入分析;然后,针对我国入境旅游季节性的时空差异分布规律,基于"推-拉"理论识别出入境客源国的休假制度和气候条件(推力因素)、旅游目的地的气候条件和旅游资源类型(拉力因素)等关键变量,进而提出应对我国入境旅游季节性的相关对策。The paper, taking 22 hot tourist cities in China as the research object and collecting monthly inbound tourists from 2006 to 2013 as the panel data,explores the seasonal temporal-spatial distribution and its influencing factors. Firstly, according to the average monthly tourist arrivals,the article classifies off-season and season for 22 hot cities’inbound tourism, and employs quantitative methods （gravity model, Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation, etc.） to make the in-depth analysis on the seasonal differences in temporal-spatial distribution for these cities. Then,aiming at the seasonal differences in spatial distribution of inbound tourism,the article proposes relevant countermeasures to deal with China’s inbound tourism seasonality based on the theory of“push and pull”to identify the leave system and climate conditions of the inbound tourist countries （push factors）,the climate conditions and tourism resource types of tourist destinations （pull factors） .

关 键 词：入境旅游 旅游季节性 时空演变 反季旅游 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]