气候变化下上海市降水问题  

Precipitation in Shanghai under Climate Change

作　　者：王轩[1] 尹占娥[1] 迟潇潇 孙钰科 殷杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学地理系,上海200234 [2]浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《热带地理》2015年第3期324-333,共10页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371493;41071324);上海市教委科研创新项目(13YZ061)

摘　　要：利用上海市10个地方气象站1961―2010年逐日降水数据以及高精度下垫面资料,综合使用累积距平、滑动平均、线性倾向估计、SDSM、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法系统分析了近50年来上海市区、近郊区和远郊区降水指标年际、季节变化特征,并基于Arc GIS空间分析,结合适合上海本地的极端降水阈值,研究了上海市雨洪灾害高危险区域的空间分布。结果发现:研究区降水强度有增强趋势,主要表现在暴雨量级以下降水频次变少,但是总量增多,且暴雨与大暴雨以上量级降水频次增多,市区、近郊区和远郊区响应时间与幅度差异明显;研究区夏季、冬季降水呈显著增加趋势,5 a滑动降水量年递增率分别达到56.23和16.71 mm/10 a,春季和秋季降水呈不显著下降趋势;黄浦江上游地区极端降水发生频次较高,极端降水引发的雨洪灾害高危险区域主要集中在黄浦江上游以及入海口等地。In order to understand the characteristics of precipitation under climate change, develop and manage the water resources rationally in Shanghai, the daily rainfall data during 1961-2010 of 10 meteorological stations and high-precision underlying surface data were used. The inter-annual and seasonal variations of different precipitation indexes in recent 50 years in Shanghai were analyzed by the methods of cumulative departure, smoothing averages, linear trend analysis, Statistical down-Scaling Model, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis and so on. Besides, percentile and DFA methods were used to define extreme precipitation threshold and the extreme precipitation frequency were added. Combined with DEM and land-use data, spatial distribution of high risk areas of flood disasters in Shanghai was studied by using the spatial analysis based on ArcGIS platform. The research indicates that： Firstly, there was an increasing trend about precipitation intensity, mainly displayed in that the frequency under rainstorm decreased while the amount increased, and the frequency increased in rainstorm as well as heavy rain, but there were significant time and intensity differences in urban, suburban and outer suburban districts; Secondly, there was an obvious increasing trend in precipitation amount in summer and winter and annual increasing rate of precipitation amount sliding 5 years reached 56.23 and 16.71 ram/10 a while spring and autumn experienced an unobvious decreasing trend; Thirdly, it is predicted that the precipitation would still experience a stable increase before 2050, but after that, the total amount of precipitation would reduce significantly and there would be an obvious mutation in 2075; Finally, it is expected that the upper reaches of the Huangpu River area would experience a much higher frequency of extreme precipitation and the high risk areas of flood disasters mainly would be distributed in the upper reaches and estuary of the Huangpu River.

关 键 词：气候变化 降水特征 城郊差异 雨洪灾害 上海市 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]