珠江三角洲城镇化转型研究  

Transition of Urbanization in the Pearl River Delta

作　　者：周春山[1] 代丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院//广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广州510275

出　　处：《热带地理》2015年第3期343-353,共11页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40971097);广东省自然科学基金项目(06023111)

摘　　要：首先采用灰色关联分析法,选取近30年的人口、产业、社会和经济等数据对珠三角城镇化的动力进行分析,其次利用面板数据模型进一步探讨珠三角城镇化转型的驱动力和演变特征。分析发现珠三角二产、人口与土地仍是其城镇化主要的驱动因素,但城镇化的"要素推动"作用下降明显,"外向型城镇化"模式逐渐减弱,"知识源导向"城镇化模式正在形成,城镇化模式趋向多元化。珠三角城镇化正面临转型,存在传统"要素推动"不可持续,新型"知识推动"发展相对缓慢,城镇化质量不高,制度建设滞后以及内需不足等新问题。珠三角要大力推进城镇化"创新驱动",实现"动力转型",通过建设宜居城乡以实现"质量转型",加快农业转移人口市民化等,促进"制度转型"。This paper discusses the driving characteristics of urbanization in the PRD by analyzing data on population, industry, resource, economic, et al in the last 30 years, based on the Grey Correlation Analysis Method. Then we use the panel data model to further explore the difference and evolution of the driving force influencing the transformation of urbanization in the PRD. The results find that industry, labors and land resources are still as its major impetus. However, in recent years, the push from factors, like land resources and labors, is significantly weaken. ＇export-oriented＇ pattern of the urbanization, depending on foreign trade industry, gradually fades out. The ＇knowledge-oriented＇ urbanization, based on production, usage and consumption of knowledge, technology and management, is gradually emerging. In a word, the urbanization in the PRD becomes gradually diversified, as well as faces transformation. But some new problems are also revealed, including the unsustainability of traditional factor-driven urbanization, the slow development and low quality of new pushing effects of knowledge in urbanization, the lagged system construction, the under developed domestic demand, etc. All the problems demonstrate that the transition of urbanization in the PRD is urgently needed. In order to further speed up the transition of urbanization, some suggestions are raised, such as to boost ＇innovative driving forces＇ of urbanization, so as to realize the ＇transition of dynamics＇ of urbanization, to promote ＇quality transition＇ and ＇system transition＇ of urbanization by building livable environments in urban and rural areas, and speeding up the urbanization of rural migrant workers and so on.

关 键 词：珠三角 城镇化 转型 

分 类 号：TU982.2[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]