宏观税负、税制结构调整对居民消费的影响:理论与实证分析  

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Macro Tax Burden and Tax Structure Adjustment on Residents' Consumption

作　　者：廖信林[1] 吴友群[1] 王立勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《财经论丛》2015年第6期25-33,共9页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71103209);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(1408085QG144);安徽省哲学社会科学规划资助项目(AHSKQ2014D39);安徽财经大学校级重点科研资助项目(ACKY1314ZDB)

摘　　要：本文通过建立一个简单动态一般均衡模型来分析不同税负水平下,直接税比重变化对居民消费的影响。采用两步一阶差分广义矩估计方法进行实证检验的结果表明,税制结构对居民消费的影响与税负水平相比,当前税负水平对居民消费的负向影响更大。因此,通过提高直接税比重来促进居民消费,应当从减少间接税收入进而降低居民的税负水平入手,通过间接税的减少来实现。并借鉴Arnold的研究方法进一步研究表明,减少间接税中的增值税和营业税能够达到减少间接税收入,降低居民税负水平目的。而逐步提高直接税收入比重,可以考虑再恢复征收利息所得税的情况下通过增加个人所得税和财产税来实现。This, paper establishes a simple dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of macro tax burden and taxation structure on residents＇ consumption. The results of the two-step-first-difference GMM method with empirical test show that, compared with the effect of the tax structure on consumption, the effect of current level of tax burden on residents＇ consumption is greater. Therefore, the promotion of residents＇ consumption by raising the proportion of direct tax burden should be achieved through the reduction of residents＇ indirect tax by decreasing indirect tax revenue and lowering residents＇ tax bur- den level. Further study with Arnold research method indicates that the reduction of value-added tax and business tax can help cut down the indirect tax revenue and reduce the tax burden level of residents. Moreover, a gradual increase in the proportion of direct income tax can be achieved by increasing the personal income tax and property tax through the resumption of interest income tax.

关 键 词：宏观税负 税制结构 居民消费 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]