多年调节水库年末控制水位多目标预测模型研究  

Study on multi-objective prediction model for year-end water level of carryover storage reservoir

作　　者：王金龙[1] 黄炜斌[1] 马光文[1] 白钰 王战策 王玉华[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065 [2]黄河上游水电有限责任公司,西宁810008 [3]中国长江三峡集团公司,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2015年第6期28-34,共7页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB036406-4);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50539140)

摘　　要：针对多年调节水库年末控制水位的优选问题,在分析其年发电量与年末库蓄能量关系的基础上,建立了兼顾多年调节电站装机容量效益的年末控制水位多目标预测模型,并以黄河上游龙羊峡水库为例进行了验证。通过入库径流、年初起调水位对年末控制水位的影响分析,揭示了多年调节水库年末控制水位优选的本质。实例计算结果表明,龙羊峡水库2006年之后的运行方式相对之前,已经有了较明显的改善,提高很大,同时也说明新模型合理有效,可用于指导生产实践。Based on the relationship between annual power generation and year-end energy storage, a multi-objective prediction model for the optimal year-end water level ot carryover storage reservoir is developed, which gives a full consideration to maximizing the hydro energy and least output of the hydro plant at such a reservoir. The model was validated with the case of Longyangxia reservoir on the upper Yellow, and the essence in obtaining its optimal year-end level was revealed through analysis of the impacts of water inflow and year-start level on this optimal level. The operation results simulated by the model are further compared with the prototype operation case of this reservoir from 1990 to 2012. This shows that since 2006 it has run at a higher level than before 2006, which improves its own benefits and indicates that the multi-objective model is reasonable and feasible.

关 键 词：水利管理 年末控制水位 多目标 多年调节水库 龙羊峡 

分 类 号：TV737[水利工程—水利水电工程]