“老龄化”和“少子化”是否影响了农村居民消费?——基于静态和动态空间面板模型的实证研究  

Do Aging and Low Birth Rate Affect the Consumption of China's Rural Residents?——Empirical Study Based on Static and Dynamic Spatial Panel Models

作　　者：陈晓毅[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081 [2]广西财经学院信息与统计学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第3期118-126,共9页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13CRK024);国家社会科学基金项目(13XMZ036)

摘　　要：以中国农村居民作为研究对象,基于2000—2012年的省级面板数据,利用静态和动态空间面板模型,考察了"老龄化"和"少子化"对农村居民消费水平的影响。实证结果表明:"老龄化"和"少子化"均对农村居民消费水平产生了显著的正向影响,其中"老龄化"的影响更为强烈。"老龄化"对农村居民消费的正效应可以由农村的养老模式和老年人的健康状况来解释;"少子化"对农村居民消费有正效应的原因在于养育观念的改变以及养育成本的提高。要解决农村消费市场疲软的问题,必须从健全社会保障和提高生产力两方面入手。Based on provincial panel data in the yearsfrom 2000 to 2012, this paper explores the impact of population aging and low birth rate on the consumption of China＇s rural residents by constructing static and dynamic spatial panel models. It concludes that both aging and low birth rate have a positive and significant impact on rural residents＇ consumption, with the former an even stronger impact. As to the positive effect of agingupon rural residents＇ consumption, it can be explained by the pension system in rural regions and elderly people＇s health status. As to the positive effect of low birth rateupon rural residents＇ consumption, the reasons lie in the change ofehild-rearing conception and the increasing cost of raising children. To solve the problem of sluggish rural consumption, it is necessary to make all-around arrangements to improve both social welfare and productivity.

关 键 词：老龄化 少子化 农村居民消费 空间面板模型 

分 类 号：F222.1[经济管理—国民经济]