近50年来我国降雨带空间变化及其影响分析  

The Variations of Rainfall Belt and Its Impact in China

作　　者：彭芸[1] 夏建新[1] 任华堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学生命与环境科学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第5期45-48,52,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50909108);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(1112KYZY53)

摘　　要：为了分析全球气候变暖对我国降雨格局变化的影响,利用最近50余年(1960-2013年)全国183个气象站资料,基于GIS和空间插值方法绘制不同年代中国降雨带分布图,分析50余年来我国降雨量空间变化,并讨论了降雨带空间迁移带来的影响。结果表明:在降雨量变化趋势方面,我国近50余年降雨整体呈现上升趋势,但空间、时间波动都较大;在降雨带空间变化方面,较60、70年代相比,除600mm降雨带小幅度南移外,其他各降雨带均呈不同程度的北移趋势;其中,400、1 000和1 600mm移动幅度较为明显;降雨格局改变,会对农业结构,生物生态,洪涝灾害等产生极大的影响。Global warming makes rainfall pattern change dramatically.Rainfall dates from 183 national stations in recent 50years（1960to 2013）are used to draw rainfall distribution map based on GIS and spatial interpolation method.The rainfall spatial variation in recent 50 years are analyzed and discussed with the impact of rainfall belt migration.The results show that from the regional rainfall trends,the overall rainfall of nearly 50 years are on the rise,but space and time fluctuations are large.From the point of view of rainfall migration,compared with the 1960 sand 1970s,in addition to rainfall 600 mm shows a small southward margin,the others show different levels of northward rainfall especially 400,1 000 and 1 600 mm range of movement are more obvious.The change of rainfall pattern has a great effect on the structure of agriculture,biological and ecological,flood disasters and so on.

关 键 词：气候变化 降雨带迁移 影响分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]