变化水沙条件下三口入洞庭湖水量变化趋势研究  

An Analysis of Changing Trends of Water Inflow from Sankou to Dongting Lake in Variation of Incoming Water and Sediment

作　　者：张丽 钱湛 张双虎[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省水利水电勘测设计研究总院,长沙410007 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2015年第5期102-104,108,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项"洞庭湖四口河系防洪;水资源与水环境研究"(200801008)

摘　　要：根据实测资料,采用肯德尔秩次趋势性显著检验(Kendall rank test)表征了松滋口、太平口、藕池口三口入洞庭湖的水量变化趋势,同时预测了三口分流量变化。结果表明未来荆南三口分流量将呈逐年减少趋势,预计到三峡水库运用后第5个10年(2043-2052年)与第二个10年(2013-2022年)相比,年平均入湖水量将减少64亿m3,2032年以前是三口分流减少较快的时期,占总减少量的85%以上,此后逐渐趋缓。Based on measured data,the changing trends of water inflow form Sankou to Dongting Lake are analyzed by using Kendall rank test in this paper.The changing in flow is also predicted.The results show that flows of Sankou decrease year after year.Compared with next ten years（2013-2022）,water inflow form Sankou to Dongting Lake would decrease by 6.4bn cubic metres in the fifth ten-year（2043-2052）plan after the operation of the Three Gorges projects.The flow has a fast decrease period before 2023,which accounts for more than 85% of total reduction.After 2023,the flow would experience a slow reduction.

关 键 词：三口 Kendall检验 分流量 三峡水库 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]