基于GTAP的中韩FTA对中国农产品贸易影响的模拟分析  

Simulation Analysis of China-Korea FTA Impact on China Agricultural Product Trade——Based on GTAP

作　　者：陈晓娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2015年第3期10-19,共10页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"东亚经济一体化对我国农业影响的SCGE模拟分析与对策"(71073158)

摘　　要：中韩自由贸易协定(FTA)结束了实质性内容谈判,两国即将正式签署协议。在中韩FTA谈判中,农产品是存在较大分歧的领域。韩国是我国重要的农产品出口贸易伙伴,中韩FTA生效后,韩国农产品减税模式将对我国农产品贸易产生一定影响。GTAP模拟结果显示:整体来看,中韩FTA将对我国农产品贸易产生积极影响。其中,我国农产品进口数量变化不大;我国农产品出口数量及产量将有所增长;农产品出口离岸价格将有所升高;生产要素价格普遍上升,其中土地价格上涨幅度最大。The substantive content negotiation on China- Korea Free Trade Agreement （FTA） has ended and the two countries will formally sign the agreement. During the negotiation, both countries have significantly different views on agricultural product trade. Since Korea is China＇s important agricultural export trade partner, Korean tax abatement mode for agricultural products will have a certain impact on China agricultural product trade after China - Korea FTA takes effect. The GTAP model simulation results show that on the whole China - Korea FTA will have the following positive influences on China agricultural product trade： the import volume of agricultural products have no significant change, the export volume and output of agricultural products will increase, the offshore export prices of China agricultural products will go up, and the prices of production factors will rise with the largest increase in land price.

关 键 词：中韩FTA 农产品贸易 减税模式 GTAP 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]