我国产业结构与就业结构协调性分析  

Analysis of Coordination between China Industry Structure and Employment Structure

作　　者：李新运[1] 徐瑶玉 王圆圆[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2015年第3期84-93,共10页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"技术进步影响就业的理论与实证及扩大我国劳动就业的对策研究"(11BJY035);国家教育部青年基金项目"我国高等教育发展与产业转型升级互动效应定量研究"(14YJC790114);国家统计局科研项目"我国城市化与产业转型升级互动效应研究"(2013LY068)

摘　　要：采用Granger因果检验和协整分析方法研究了产业结构与就业结构之间的因果关系及互动效应;建立了成分数据预测模型,对我国2014-2020年三次产业的产值结构与就业结构进行了预测;通过计算产业结构偏离度与就业弹性,对我国产业结构与就业结构的协调性和相关关系进行了分析评价。结果表明:我国三次产业产值与其就业量之间存在单向因果关系,第二、三产业产值的增长能带动该产业就业人数的增加;预测期内,我国第一、二产业产值比重稳中有降,第三产业发展迅速,但产业结构与就业结构依然不协调。因此,我国今后发展的重点仍在第二、三产业,尤其应大力发展第三产业,优化产业结构,利用第二、三产业对劳动的吸纳能力来增加就业、促进劳动力转移。The causal relationships and interaction effects between industries and employment are studied by means of Granger causality test and co - integration analysis. And the industrial output value structure and employment structure from 2014 to 2020 are predicted through the newly - established component data prediction model, while the coordination and correlation between industry structure and employment structure are analyzed and evaluated by calculating industry structure deviation degree and employment elasticity. The results show that there exists a unidirectional causal relationship between the industrial output value and the employment volume because the growth of the second and third industrial output values drive the increase in employment volume, and that during the forecast period the proportions of the second and third industrial output values are stable with a slight decline and the third industry develops rapidly while the industrial structure and employment structure are not coordinated. Therefore, China focus of future development is still the second and third industries, especially the third industry, so as to optimize the industrial structure, increase employment volume and promote of labor force transfer pacity of the second and third industries. through the labor absorptive capacity of the second and third industries.

关 键 词：GRANGER因果检验 协整分析 成分数据 结构偏离度 就业弹性 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]