云南省土地利用变化特征及耕地变化驱动因素分析  

Variation Characteristics of Land Use and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Change in Yunnan Province

作　　者：袁磊[1,2] 杨昆[1,2] 赵俊三[3] 

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学信息学院,云南昆明650500 [2]西部资源环境地理信息技术教育部工程研究中心(云南师范大学),云南昆明650500 [3]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2015年第3期1-10,共10页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：云南省社会发展科技计划项目(2012CA024);云南师范大学博士科研项目(01000205020503063)

摘　　要：为促进云南省未来土地资源的可持续利用,基于全域宏观尺度视角,以1999—2008年土地利用更新调查数据和社会经济统计数据,采用多种LUCC分析模型和数理统计分析方法,对10年期土地利用变化特征进行分析。结果表明:研究期内是云南省土地利用快速变化期,园地、交通水利设施用地、居民点及独立工矿用地年均增长速率最快,分别达2.92%、2.78%和1.36%;其次是耕地和未利用地快速减少,年均减少速率分别为0.55%和0.47%,其中耕地大量转为园地、林地和建设用地,面积分别为194 257.27 hm2、118 028.67 hm2和58 355.38 hm2;从土地开发利用率看,均值维持在84.73%,总体相对稳定,但又有差异,主要表现在农业利用率、林地覆盖率稳中略升,建设利用率逐年增加,土地垦殖率逐年放缓;土地利用程度综合指数均在211以上,属中等稍上水平,略呈增长之势,土地利用程度变化量也不断提高,说明研究期内土地利用还处于快速发展期。此外,将相关分析与主成分分析相结合,对耕地变化驱动因素进行定量分析,结果发现耕地变化是人口因素、产业结构调整、经济快速发展和居民生活水平大幅提高4方面因素综合作用的结果,其中地方财政收入、固定资产投资总额、农民人均收入和产业产值等是驱动全省耕地变化的核心因子。In order to promote sustainable utilization of land resources in Yunnan Province in the future,based on the land use survey data and social economic statistical data of Yunnan Province from 1999 to 2008from a macro perspective,the various LUCC models and mathematical statistics analysis methods were adopted to analyze characteristics of land use change in a decade.The result shows that land use has changed rapidly during this period.It is mainly manifested in the following aspects.Firstly,the average annual growth rate of garden land,traffic and water conservancy facilities land,residential and industrial and mining land are increasing fleetly,with each being 2.92%,2.78% and 1.36%,respectively.Secondly,the average annual decrease rate of cultivated land and unused land is decreasing rapidly with 0.55% and 0.47% respectively.A lot of cultivated land has been transformed to garden land,woodland and construction land in the course of changes,reaching 194257.27hm2,118 028.67hm2 and 58 355.38hm2,respectively.As far as the land development and utilization rate is concerned,its mean value remains at around 84.73%,though different in some specifics.The major differences are manifested in the steady rate of agricultural utilization and forest coverage,the annually increasing growth of construction utilization rate,and slowing down of land reclamation In terms of land use extent,land use degree index are more than 211 in the same period of study,on the middle level with a slightly growing trend.The amount of land use change is also rising.All the above indicated that the land use in Yunnan Province during the period was still on a rapid rise.Besides,combining the correlation analysis with principal analysis,the quantitative analysis has been conducted to the driving factors of cultivated land change.The result shows that the cause of cultivated land change in Yunnan Province is the synthetic action of four aspects,the population factor,the adjustment of industrial structure,the rapid economic development,and enhanced life

关 键 词：土地利用变化驱动力 LUCC模型 相关分析 主成分分析 云南省 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]