基于实物期权的房地产投资决策实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Real Estate Investment Decision Based on Real Options

作　　者：刘文华[1] 洪敏[1] 唐琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南工学院经济与管理学院,湖南衡阳421002

出　　处：《嘉应学院学报》2015年第3期43-46,共4页Journal of Jiaying University

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金委面上项目(11JJ3092);湖南省社科项目(1011089B);湖南省科技厅软科学立项资助课题(2009ZK3116);湖南省教育厅一般项目(14C0307);衡阳市社科项目(2014B(Ⅱ)027)

摘　　要：基于全国35个大中城市的房地产面板数据,从实物期权视角考察了我国房地产投资的影响因素。研究结果表明:商品房价格不确定性抑制了房地产投资;而商品房价格上升促进了房地产投资;贷款利率对房地产投资没有显著性影响。据此,提出了相关政策建议,以便更有效地管理房地产投资。Based on the panel data of real estate in 35 large and medium- sized cities nationwide,this paper has studied the factors influencing the real estate investment from the perspective of real option. The research results show that： the uncertainty of commercial housing price suppresses the real estate investment,while the rising of commercial housing price promotes the real estate investment. Loan interest rate has no significant effects on real estate investment. Accordingly,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations in order to manage real estate investment more effectively.

关 键 词：面板数据 实物期权 房地产投资 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]