金融市场发展、外汇储备积累与经济增长——基于国别(地区)门限面板模型的分析  

Financial Market Development,Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation and Economic Growth:A Test Based on Threshold Panel Regression Model

作　　者：马野驰[1] 于珊[1] 姜晓琴[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济问题》2015年第6期57-63,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“货币地理学视角下的人民币亚洲化研究”(12YJCGJW005);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“中国对东盟直接投资的质量评价及优化对策研究”(13YJC790083)

摘　　要：外汇储备持续增长已成为多个国家的经济负担,然而不能忽视外汇储备增长对经济发展的积极影响。基于新兴市场各国短期内无最优方法改善高额外汇储备积累难题的假设条件进行研究,试图寻找能够将外汇储备的积极效应最大化的途径。利用27国(地区)相关数据建立门限面板模型后,分析不同金融市场发展水平下外汇储备对经济增长的宏观经济效应。研究结果表明:在发达国家和新兴市场国家,外汇储备均对经济增长具有积极影响。但是,不同的金融市场发展水平也会限制外汇储备的经济效应。金融市场发展水平越高的国家,外汇储备对经济增长的促进作用更为明显。The growing foreign exchange reserves has become a burden on the states, but we could not ignore the positive impact of foreign exchange reserves on economic development.In this paper, we hypothesis that the e-merging market countries could not resolve the problem of high reserve accumulation, and trying to find the best way to maximize the positive effects of foreign exchange reserves.We choose 27-nation panel data model to estab-lish threshold model and analysis the macroeconomic effects of financial market development on economic growthun-der different levels of foreign exchange reserves.The results show that foreign exchange reserves have a positive im-pact on economic growth in both developed and emerging market countries.However, the level of financial market development would limit the economic effects of foreign exchange reserves.The higher the level of development of national financial markets, the more obviouspromotingeconomic growthbyforeign exchange reserves.

关 键 词：金融发展 外汇储备 经济增长 门限效应 

分 类 号：F830.3[经济管理—金融学]