订单波动下的发动机销售预测  

Discussion of Engine Sales Prediction Under Fluctuated Market Demand

作　　者：徐炜[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学机械与动力学院,上海200240

出　　处：《柴油机设计与制造》2015年第2期48-53,共6页Design and Manufacture of Diesel Engine

摘　　要：在当今日益变化的发动机市场环境下,竞争日趋激烈,订单常常发生波动。如何在订单波动下预测发动机的销售量,以合理安排生产,是企业管理面临的一个挑战。但预测方法会影响预测的准确性,对3种预测方法及其预测误差进行了比较和分析。以某发动机制造厂为例,说明如何根据订单波动情况,预测发动机的销售量。In today＇s ever-changing market, market competition is becoming fierce, which leads tomarket demand fluctuation. To predict engines sales under fluctuated market demand for a good arrangementof engine production is a challenge facing engine manufacturers. With the help of data mining theory and byanalysis of historic data, the prediction engine sales can be obtained. Forecasting methods and theirselection, however, have much effect on the result of prediction. Comparison and analysis of differentpredicting methods and their errors are discussed. The application of forecasting methods to foreseeing salesis explained based on the data of an engine manufacturer.

关 键 词：发动机 订单 波动 销售 预测 

分 类 号：F426.4[经济管理—产业经济] F274