基于SLM模型的中国碳排放格网化空间分布模拟  

Spatial Distribution Simulation of Carbon Emission with Grid Transformation Based on SLM in China

作　　者：刘永伟[1,2] 闫庆武[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [2]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2015年第3期76-80,共5页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：全国统计科学研究计划项目(2012LY186);中央高校基本科研业务专项项目(2011QNB15);国土环境与灾害监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室开放基金项目(LEDM2012B09)

摘　　要：以美国橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分析中心的中国碳排放数据、统计年鉴中的分省化石能源消费与水泥产量数据为基础,选取NDVI植被指数、DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据、GDP、工业总产值、人口5个指标,对中国2000年及2010年的分省碳排放结果采用5km×5km格网,运用空间滞后回归模型(SLM)进行空间分布模拟,并对空间模拟结果进行误差分析及纠正,获得2000年及2010年地均碳排放强度空间分布图。结果表明,中国地均碳排放强度存在以下特征:区域差异分布特征明显,主要表现为从东部地区向中西部地区逐渐变小;存在几个明显高值热点及低值冷点区域;随着时间的推移,地域差异特征越发明显,冷点和热点区域分布特征更加显著;2010年各地区地均碳排放强度明显大于2000年。Along with the development of the economy and society, research on the spatial distribution of carbon emission is be- coming the hot issues of GIS science and physical geography. Based on the date of the carbon emission in CDIAC,Chinese pro vincial fossil energy consumption and cement output, selecting NDVI vegetation index, DMSP/OLS, GDP, industrial output and population, 5 influence factors of carbon emissions, the results of Chinese carbon emission in 2000 and 2010 were processed with 5 km× 5 km grids, the SLM was established to simulate the spatial distribution, and the accuracy of the model was provided by testing the accuracy and error analysis. Finally we got the spatial distribution of intensity of carbon emission unit area of land in 2000 and 2010. The results showed that there were several distinct distribution characteristics for the intensity of carbon emis- sions unit area of land, which were as follows：there were distinct regional differences distribution characteristics, which mainly showed that it became smaller from the eastern areas to the middle-western areas; there were few obvious high value hotspots areas and low value cold spots areas, and as time went on, the features of regional differences were more obvious, and the distri bution characteristics of hotspot areas and cold spot areas were more significant; the intensity of carbon emissions unit area of land in 2010 was obviously greater than that in 2000.

关 键 词：碳排放 SLM模型 格网化 空间分布 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]