中国经济增长方式转变特征测度——基于贝叶斯时变参数状态空间模型  

The Measurement of China's Economic Growth Mode Transformation Characteristics:Based on Bayesian State Space Models with Time-Varying Parameters

作　　者：张五六[1] 

机构地区：[1]华侨大学数量经济研究院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2015年第6期20-27,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目.华侨大学哲学社会科学青年学者成长工程基金项目<基于贝叶斯状态空间模型的不可观测变量估计及应用>(12SKGC-QT03)

摘　　要：忽略经济增长模型的合适性及时变特征可能导致中国经济增长方式测度严重背离现实。根据Solow与Lucas的两类经济增长模型,序贯性构建了6个时变参数经济增长函数。通过贝叶斯推断与MCMC抽样获得刻画经济增长方式转变的时变特征,应用模型选择与比较得到相应结论:规模报酬时变的人力资本外部性模型要优于其它5个模型,人力资本要素对经济增长具有溢出效应,提高了经济增长的内源性效率;物质资本弹性、人力资本弹性及溢出效应具有较强上升趋势,对中国经济可持续性发展发挥良好支撑作用;尚未达到递增阶段的规模报酬以及收敛性波动的全要素生产率(TFP)增长率都需审慎解决。Ignoring the appropriateness and time‐varying characteristics of the economic growth may lead to the measurement of the transformation to China＇s economic grow th pattern to a serious departure from reality . This paper establishes six time‐varying parameters of the function of economic growth , according to Solow and Lucas two types of economic growth model .We get the time‐varying path to the transformation of economic growth by Bayesian inference and MCMC sampling ,and get the corresponding conclusions by the model selection and comparison . First , time varying returns to scale in externality model of human capital is superior to the other five models ,human capital factors have spillover effects on economic grow th and improve the efficiency of endogenous economic grow th;second , although time‐varying returns to scale not yet reached the ascending phase ,but the elastic of physical capital and human capital becomes a strong upward trend ,the sustainability of economic growth on China＇s economy has a good supporting role;finally , the scale to returns have not yet entered increasing trend and the convergence fluctuations of TFP growth still need to carefully addressed .

关 键 词：经济增长方式 经济增长模型 资本存量 贝叶斯状态空间模型 MCMC抽样 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] C812[社会学—统计学]