中国新疆边境贸易便利化发展趋势动态仿真——基于多因素系统动力学分析的视角  

Dynamic Simulation of Development Tendency about Border Trade Facilitation of Xinjiang,China—Based on the Perspective of Multi- factor System Dynamics Analysis

作　　者：李豫新[1] 帅林遥 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2015年第3期46-52,共7页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(10AJL010);国家软科学项目(2009GXS5D131)

摘　　要：贸易便利化水平预示着地区贸易发展的方向与潜力。本文基于多因素的分析视角,利用系统动力学逻辑构建了新疆边境贸易便利化趋势仿真的分析框架。在这一框架下,新疆边境贸易便利化的发展是由各子系统驱动形成的变化过程。总体来看,各子系统组合作用下新疆边境贸易便利化水平上升趋势十分显著,到2032年水平提升接近70%。具体来看,各子系统单独作用下新疆边境贸易便利化发展趋势存在差异,其中服务部门子系统、政策环境子系统作用下上升趋势较显著,而边贸企业子系统、监管部门子系统、相对国贸易便利化子系统作用下上升水平较低。Trade facilitation level indicates the direction and potential of regional trade development. This arti- cle based on the perspective of multi - factor analysis ~ using system dynamics logic to build frame about the Xinjiang border trade facilitations tendency simulation. With this framework, Xinjiang border trade facilitation is a changing process drove by each subsystem. Overall, under the combination of each subsystem, the level of Xinjiang border trade facilitation will promote to 70% by 2032, show a notable uptrend. In detail, under the separately action of each subsystem, the development tendency of Xinjiang border trade facilitation exists some differences. Under serv- ice department subsystem and policy environment subsystem, there is a significant increasing trend, while under border trade enterprises subsystem ,supervision department subsystem and the trade facilitation of other country sub- system, the uptrend shows a low level.

关 键 词：边境贸易便利化 发展趋势 系统动力学模型 动态仿真 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]