基于Shapley值修正的BT项目共担风险分配研究  

Research on the joint risk allocation in BT projects based on the revised Shapley value

作　　者：高华[1] 刘程程[1] 王博[2] 高喜珍[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津理工大学管理学院,天津300384 [2]天津泰达海洋开发有限公司,天津300457

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期303-308,共6页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471131;71272017);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJA630032)

摘　　要：将影响BT项目风险分担的因素与Shapley值结合,应用修正的Shapley值法构建了BT项目共担风险分配模型,并运用此模型进行了某围海造陆BT项目的通货膨胀风险、不可抗力风险和利率风险的分配研究.结论表明,根据控制风险的收益,运用本模型可以确定通货膨胀风险及不可抗力风险合理的分配比例,而利率风险的分配不适合使用该模型.This paper combines the Shapley value with the influence factors of risk allocation, and builds a model for joint risk allocation in BT projects using the revised Shapley value. The model is also used to analyze the risk allocation of a land reclamation BT project. The result shows that according to the benefits generated by controlling the risks, the reasonable allocation ratio of inflation risk and force majeure risk can be calculated by this model, but it is inappropriate to analyze the allocation of interest rate risk through this model.

关 键 词：BT项目 风险分担影响因素 共担风险 风险分担模型 SHAPLEY值 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]