2015年5月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,May 2015

作　　者：洪志恒[1] 余宏杰[2] 周航[2] 涂文校[1] 常昭瑞[2] 周蕾[1] 孟玲[1] 曹洋[1] 李雷雷[1] 倪大新[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心卫生应急中心,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制处,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2015年第5期348-352,共5页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2015年5月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往流行特点分析,预计5月全国总报告事件数和病例数较4月将有所增加。随着气温的逐渐上升,登革热、手足口病、布鲁氏菌病流行强度会逐渐增强,受优势病原的变化及异常气象条件影响,部分省份可能会出现病例异常增多或重症、死亡病例增多现象。近期我国内地仍将发生人感染H7N9散发病例,其他可感染人类的禽流感可能有散发病例报告。埃博拉出血热、中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险依然存在,但发生大规模扩散的可能性均极低。结论预计2015年5月全国总报告事件数和病例数较4月将有所增加;需重点关注登革热、手足口病、布鲁氏菌病、埃博拉出血热、人感染H7N9禽流感、中东呼吸综合征对我国的影响。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in May 2015.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of public health emergencies and communicable diseases,it is predicted that the incidences of public health emergencies and related communicable diseases would be higher in May than in April,2015.As the gradual rise of air temperature,the activities of dengue fever,brucellosis and hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） would increase,and due to the change of predominant pathogens and the influence of abnormal climate,the sudden increase of cases as well as the increase of severe cases and death cases would occur in some province.Sporadic cases of human infection with influenza A（H7N9） virus would continue to occur,and sporadic cases of human infection with other avian influenza viruses might be reported.The risks of transmission of Ebola virus disease（EVD） and Middle East respiratory syndrome（MERS） to China still exist,but the possibility of large scale spread is very low.Conclusion It is predicated that the incidences of public health emergencies and related communicable disease would be higher in May than in April.Close attention should be paid to dengue fever,brucellosis,HFMD,human infection with avian virus and the risks of EVD and MERS to China.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]