基于Bass模型的超临界机组和超超临界机组的扩散情景分析  

Diffusion Scene Analysis on Supercritical Unit and Ultra Supercritical Units Based on Bass Model

作　　者：朱开伟[1] 刘贞[1,2] 吕指臣 蒲刚清[3] 郭伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学工商管理学院,重庆市400054 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究室,北京市100084 [3]重庆理工大学机械工程学院,重庆市400054

出　　处：《电力建设》2015年第6期128-133,共6页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71073095);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(10YJC630161)~~

摘　　要：本文在Bass模型原理的基础上,建立了关于政府投资、成本对超临界机组和超超临界机组的扩散影响模型,同时考虑了超临界机组和超超临界机组的竞争。研究发现:(1)超临界机组和超超临界机组的成本,对其扩散影响较小,而政府投资对超临界机组和超超临界机组的扩散影响较大;(2)在1.5倍和2倍于当前投资情景下,不同政府投资影响率下(Q值不同),超临界机组的最大市场装机容量分别为494.59,558.39,622.20 GW和434,518,602 GW,而超超临界机组的分别为905.42,841.61,777.81 GW和966,882,798 GW;(3)超临界机组和超超临界机组都将在2025年左右完成扩散过程。Based on the principle of Bass model, a new model was established for the diffusion effects of the government investment, cost on supercritical units and ultra supercritical unit, with considering the the competition of supercritical units and ultra supercritical units. Research shows that ： （ 1 ） compared to the affect of government invest, the cost of supercritical units and ultra supercritical units has less effect to their diffusion trend; （ 2 ） in 1.5 times and 2 times of the current investment situation, under the different Q value, the supercritical units eventually installed capacity are about 494. 585, 558.39, 622. 20 GW and 434, 518, 602 GW while the ultra supercritical units eventually installed capacity are about 905.42, 841.61, 777.81 GW and 966, 882, 798 GW; （3） around 2025 supercritical units and ultra supercritical units will both complete the diffusion process.

关 键 词：超临界机组 超超临界机组 BASS模型 

分 类 号：TM621[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]