时空分异视角下非常规突发事件网络舆情演化研究——以“上海12.31踩踏事件”为例  

On the Evolution of the Unconventional Emergency Network Public Opinion from the Perspective of Spatial-temporal Differentiation—— Taking “Shanghai 12. 31 Stampede” as an Example

作　　者：刘国巍[1] 程国辉[1] 姜金贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]桂林航天工业学院工商管理系,桂林541004 [2]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《情报杂志》2015年第6期126-130,150,共6页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"社会化媒体环境下非对称性危机事件的演化仿真研究"(编号:13YJCZH062)研究成果之一

摘　　要：网络舆情作为非常规突发事件信息扩散的有效工具,明晰其时间和空间演化规律,有利于监控非常规突发事件网络舆情,降低非常规突发事件次生危害风险。基于搜索引擎关注度数据的连续和聚类特性,运用最优分割理论和Moran's I指数构建非常规突发事件网络舆情演化模型,并以"上海12.31踩踏事件"为例进行实证研究,据此揭示非常规突发事件网络舆情演化的时空分异规律。Network public opinion is an effective tool for information diffusion of unconventional emergency, and clarifying its time and space evolution law is beneficial for monitoring the unconventional emergencies network public opinion and reducing the secondary risks. This paper uses the optimal segmentation theory and Mom＇s I index to construct the unconventional emergencies network public opinion e- volution model based on the continuity and clustering characteristics of search engine concern data. Then by taking ＂the 12.31 Shanghai Stampede＂ incident as an example to conduct the empirical research, the spatial-temporal differentiation law of unconventional emergen- cies network public opinion evolution is identified.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 网络舆情 舆情演化 时空分异 踩踏事件 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]