基于微博舆论生态的突发事件管理策略研究  

A Study on the Management Strategy of Emergencies Based on Micro-blog Public Opinion Ecology

作　　者：姜景[1,2] 李丁[3] 刘怡君[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所社会治理与风险研究中心,北京100190 [3]西南财经大学发展研究院,成都611130

出　　处：《管理评论》2015年第4期48-56,共9页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(91024010;91324009);中国科学院创新团队项目(GH13041);中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所重大研究任务(Y201201Z06)

摘　　要：微博在我国已发展成为人们获取信息的重要来源,微博舆论的热度将决定网络舆论的发展态势。党的十八届三中全会决定指出,要健全坚持正确舆论导向的体制机制,官方媒体就要发挥更大作用。意见领袖在微博舆论特别是突发事件的传播中具有重要作用,与官方微博进行着双议程设置的博弈。意见领袖传播信息的性质决定了政府舆论管理策略的选择,即对于不实信息、网络谣言等应选择竞争策略消除负面信息;对于正能量信息应选择依存策略促进正面信息传播。因此,本文在微博舆论生态研究的基础上构建意见领袖和官方微博的相互竞争与相互依存模型,通过数值模拟与仿真分析,为政府应对突发事件微博舆论提供妥善的管理策略。Micro-blog has become an important source of daily information for people in China, and the heat of micro-blog public opinion will decide the direction of the network public opinion. According to the decisions made by the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee, in order to improve and adhere to the mechanism of the correct guidance of public opinion, the official media are supposed to play a greater role. Moreover, the opinion leaders have played an important role in the dissemination of miero-blog public o- pinion, especially in that of emergencies. The opinion leaders a/so game with the official media in double agenda setting. What informa- tion the opinion leaders spread determines the government＇ s choice of public opinion management strategy, i.e., for false information and network rumors, competition strategy should be chosen to eliminate the negative information; for the positive energy information from those opinion leaders, dependency strategy should be adopted to facilitate the spread of positive information. This paper builds a competi- tion and interdependence model for opinion leaders and official micro-blog; by numerical modeling and simulation, the paper provides the government with correct strategy of managing micro-blog public opinion of emergencies.

关 键 词：微博舆论生态 意见领袖 官方微博 突发事件管理策略 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学] G206[政治法律—中外政治制度]