协调发展视角下的城乡人口迁移地区差异计量模型研究  

Regional Differences Econometric Model for Migration in Urban and Rural Areas from the Perspective of Coordinated Development

作　　者：杨晓冬[1] 武永祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《中国软科学》2015年第5期92-100,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71473061);黑龙江省自然科学基金(G201407);黑龙江哲学和社会科学规划项目(13B013);黑龙江省博士后科研基金(LBH-Q13089)

摘　　要：在我国城镇化水平高速发展的背景下,城乡人口能否适应协调发展的要求成为当前研究的热点问题。本文基于城乡协调发展视角,首先分析了人口迁移与城乡协调发展的互动效应,然后应用因子分析方法对城乡人口迁移地区差异的影响因素进行研究,在此基础上构建联立方程模型,包括城乡人口迁移推拉模型、城乡发展协调方程、城乡社会保障协调方程。接下来,对全国30个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据进行了实证分析。结果表明,全国的城乡发展水平协调但城乡社会保障水平不协调。东部中部西部人口迁移量与城乡协调发展水平存在差异,社会保障水平都不协调,最后给出相应的政策建议。本文从空间角度揭示了城乡人口迁移的地区差异规律,为推动城乡协调发展及人口政策制定提供依据。In the context of the rapid development of China＇s urbanization level, whether urban and rural population can adapt to the requirements of the coordinated development has become a hot issue in current research. Based on the perspective of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, this article analyses the interactive effects of population migration and the coordinated development of urban and rural areas firstly, and then apply Factor Analysis Method to study on the factors of regional differences in rural-urban migration. As a consequence, simultaneous equations model is constructed on this basis, including urban-rural migration sliding model, urban and rural development coordination equation and urban and rural social security coordination equation. Next, empirical analysis is conducted on the panel data from 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities over the country. The results show that the national urban and rural development level keeps coordinated but the urban and rural social security level is not harmonious. In the East, Middle and West of China, the population migration amount exists difference from the coordinated developmentlevel in urban and rural areas and the social security level is not coordinated, and it finally gives the appropriate policy recommendations. On the whole, this article reveals the law of regional differences in urban-rural migration from the spatial angle,providing the basis for promoting the coordinated development and population policy of urban and rural areas.

关 键 词：人口迁移 地区差异 协调发展 联立方程 面板数据 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]