中国从拉美国家进口农产品的影响因素分析  

Research on influence factors of China's agricultural import from Latin America

作　　者：宋海英[1] 尉博 

机构地区：[1]浙江外国语学院国际工商管理学院,杭州310012

出　　处：《世界农业》2015年第1期108-113,203,共6页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303222)

摘　　要：近年来,中国从拉美国家进口农产品的总量持续增长、农产品贸易逆差不断扩大;进口市场集中度高,农产品贸易风险大;进口产品集中度高,贸易依赖性强。本文运用最新的统计数据,通过扩展引力方程模型,对中国从拉美国家进口农产品的影响因素进行了模拟。结果发现,中国人均GDP的增长、拉美国家的土地面积和自由贸易区都对中国从拉美国家进口农产品产生了显著的正向影响,进而提出产品多元化与市场多元化相结合,分散农产品贸易风险;抓大与放小相结合,扩大从拉美国家进口农产品;"引进来"与"走出去"相结合,推进中国与拉美国家农业合作的政策建议。The amount of China's agricultural import from Latin American countries has been increased in recent years.Its agricultural trade deficit has also been expanded.The market concentration and product concentration have been very high,which means high trade risk for China's agricultural import from Latin America.This paper analyzes the influence factors of China's agricultural import from Latin American countries based on expanded gravity model using latest panel data.The result shows that China's per capita gross domestic product,the land area of Latin American countries and Free Trade Agreements all significantly promote China's agricultural import from Latin America.Therefore,China should combine product diversification and market diversification strategies to spread agricultural import risk,combine grasping big and dropping little strategies to expand agricultural import from Latin American countries,and combine introducing into and going out strategies to promote the agricultural cooperation between China and Latin American countries.

关 键 词：拉美国家 农产品进口 影响因素 面板数据 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]