美国能源独立对加拿大油气出口战略的影响  

Influence of the US's energy independence strategy on Canada's energy export strategy

作　　者：曹斌[1] 张震[1] 李金乘 徐舜华[1] 杜国敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油规划总院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2015年第5期67-73,111-112,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：加拿大是世界第五大石油生产国和第五大天然气生产国,其主要的资源潜力来自于加拿大西部的油砂以及非常规气。美国能源独立是基于北美丰富油气资源基础上的能源战略,加拿大油气资源及其出口战略是影响美国能源独立战略的重要因素。未来美国墨西哥湾地区具备再消化100万吨/日加拿大油砂资源的能力,剩余的加西部油砂资源将流向亚太市场以及加东部市场。目前加拿大原油外输管线建设正是按照首先美国、其次亚太、最后加拿大东部的顺序推进的。随着美国天然气逐渐实现自给自足,加拿大天然气对美国的净出口将逐渐减少,未来在两国天然气互供的同时,加拿大将出口的重心转移到以LNG的形式出口亚太市场。2014年下半年以来国际原油价格大幅下跌,短期内不会对加拿大的原油生产和出口战略产生太大的影响,但会推迟加拿大西部LNG出口设施的建设步伐。Canada is the world's fifth largest oil producer and fifth largest natural gas producer, with potential resources mainly from Western Canada's oil sands and unconventional gas. US energy independence is based on the abundant oil and gas resource in North American, and Canada's oil and gas resource and export strategy is an important factor affecting the US's energy independence strategy. The Gulf of Mexico may consume another 1 million tons/day of Canada's oil sands in the future, while residual oil sands resources will go to the Asia market and the Eastern Canadian market. Now Canada builds crude oil pipelines fi rst considering theUS, next Asia, and lastly Eastern Canada. Meanwhile, with the gas demand in US gradually self-sufficient, Canadian natural gas export will shift to Asia and Europe through LNG liquefaction plants. The sharp fall in international crude oil prices will not impact Canadian crude oil export strategy in the short term, but will slow the pace of the construction of LNG export facilities in Western Canada.

关 键 词：加拿大 美国 能源独立 石油 天然气 出口 战略 

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