决策与风险源:社会稳定源头治理之关键  

Decision Making and the Source of Risk:Governance from the Source for Social Stability

作　　者：朱德米[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《公共管理学报》2015年第1期137-144,159-160,共8页Journal of Public Management

基　　金：国家社会科学重点项目(11AZD108);国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD176)

摘　　要：社会稳定风险评估是针对决策的后果带来社会不稳定(群体性事件)的发生概率进行预测与分析,实现源头防治。依据决策理论,探究决策与风险源的关系。在当下中国决策过程的典型事例进行比较与剖析基础上,从决策者的有限理性、决策结构的变异、决策过程的碎片化、政策变迁过于频繁、政策缝隙过大等五个方面来研究决策与风险聚集的关系。应对经济社会转型期的大规模高风险的社会不稳定的关键点是推动决策过程的转型。在发展型国家的框架内,建构良好社会秩序的决策制度安排是进一步研究需要解决问题。在健全社会稳定风险评估机制的实践中,其选择不能简单地停留在对社会不稳定进行风险预测、风险评估和应急处置上。研究的价值在于揭示出社会不稳定是社会利益系统失衡的一种表现,其根本在于决策制度安排,推动决策制度的变革是社会稳定风险评估的要义,从而真正实现源头治理的目标。Risk assessment of social stability is the prediction and analysis of the probability of social instability(mass disturbance)based on the consequence of decision making. Its solution is source control. Finding out the risk source of social instability is the foundation of an effective institutional arrangement. The relationship between decision-making and risk source should be based on decision-making theory. The typical decision-making cases in current China entail further explanation through comparison and contrast,deep analysis,and detailed observation. The research framework is elaborated on the relationship between decision-making and risk pooling in the following five aspects:the decision marker's finite rationality,the transformation of decision structure;the fragmentation of decision-making,the frequent changes of policy,and the policy gap. The research results suggest a close relationship between decision-making and risk source. Therefore,to avoid the mass-scale social instability in the economic and social transition period,the key is to promote the transformation of decision-making process. A further researched question is to establish a decision-making institution of a healthy-functioned society in a developing country. During the improvement of social stability risk assessment,the key is not only confined to risk prediction,risk assessment,and emergency response,but also lies in promoting the transition of decision-making process through assessment,especially reforming the institutional arrangement of decision-making in developing countries to meet the demands of a well-ordered society. The limitation of this research is what decision-making institutional arrangement should be,how to establish such an arrangement and other related issues. This limitation need further research in the future. To improve the mechanism of social stability risk assessment in practice,the techniques of risk management are not supposed to be put much emphasis on. Instead,the development path of this mechanism should divert

关 键 词：风险源 决策 政策变迁 政策缝隙 社会稳定风险评估 

分 类 号：C912[经济管理]