通货膨胀目标制是否有效？--来自合成控制法的新证据  

Is Inflation Targeting Effective?——New Evidence from the Synthetic Control Methods

作　　者：苏治[1] 胡迪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,邮政编码100081

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第6期74-88,共15页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473279,71101157);“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”;国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAH16F02);教育部人文社科研究项目(10YJC790220);中央财经大学第二批青年科研创新团队项目;中央财经大学博士研究生重点选题支持计划的资助

摘　　要：通货膨胀目标制(inflation targeting,IT)是一项追求长期价格稳定的货币政策框架,目前被二十多个国家采用。学界对通货膨胀目标制是否有效至今存在分歧。以往的政策评价方法可能存在样本选择偏误及政策内生性问题,本文应用一种较新的非实验评估方法——合成控制法,对51个新兴国家1980年至2012年的通货膨胀率进行了研究,评估了IT对新兴市场国家通货膨胀率的影响。结果显示:合成控制法通过对多个控制对象加权以模拟目标国政策实施前的情况,比传统方法更为客观地定量评估IT在不同新兴市场国家的政策效果;IT实施国的通胀率明显低于同期假设其不实施IT时的通胀率,且波动更小,即使在外生冲击下,其通胀增长幅度也明显更窄。目前我国尚不完全具备实施通货膨胀目标制的前提条件,一些新兴市场国家的成功经验可为我国货币政策框架的完善和货币政策的制定提供借鉴。inflation Targeting is a monetary policy pursuing long-term price stability, and more than 20 countries have adopted this monetary policy. This paper applies a novel non-experimental evaluation approach to examine the question of whether inflation targeting is an effective policy tool in emerging economies. We found that the synthetic control method can overcome the endogenous policy and the bias problem of sample selection, and evaluate the effectiveness of inflation targeting in different countries quantitatively; the inflation targeting can effectively reduce the rate of inflation, keeping the price long-term stable and economic development steady, and even with the exogenous shock, the countries applied inflation targeting got smaller increase of inflation rate. Although at present China does not possess the preconditions for implementing of the inflation targeting, the successful experience of some emerging countries can offer references for our monetary policy.

关 键 词：通货膨胀目标制 合成控制法 货币政策 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]