国际因素对中国通货膨胀的非线性传导效应  

The Nonlinear Transmission Effect of International Factors to Chinese Inflation

作　　者：欧阳志刚[1,2] 潜力[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院 [2]华东交通大学经济管理学院,邮政编码430073

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第6期89-102,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71371189,71161010,71262010);国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY173);全国优秀博士论文基金项目(201305);江西省“赣鄱英才555”领军人才项目的资助

摘　　要：本文扩展Gamber&Hung(2001)的分析框架,研究国际因素对通货膨胀传导渠道的非线性转换。基于此,本文构建通货膨胀影响因素的数据信息集,使用动态因子模型刻画国际因素对中国通货膨胀的非线性传导效应。结果表明:国际因素最终通过资本渠道和贸易渠道对中国通货膨胀形成共同传导效应和特质传导效应,两类传导效应都随着中国对外经济结构的转变而具有非线性。随着我国以刺激内需为主的经济结构缓慢转型,国际因素对中国通胀的传导效应将适当减弱。影响中国通货膨胀的国际因素可综合为6个国际共同因子,其中国际成本因子、国际能源因子、国际货币因子和对外贸易因子对当前通货膨胀形成负向非线性共同传导效应,并且国际成本因子和国际能源因子的负向共同传导效应较大。美国量化宽松货币政策退出、美元指数强势、国际原材料价格和国际能源价格下降等国际因素还对中国通货膨胀形成负向特质传导效应。综合来看,近期国际因素对当前中国通货膨胀具有抑制效应。This paper studies the nonlinear regime switch characteristic of transmission channel of international factors to inflation by extending Gamber and Hung（2001 ） research frame. Based on this, we build data set of inflation factors and use nonlinear dynamic factor model to reveal the nonlinear transmission effects of international factors to inflation. The results show that international factor effects inflation through trade and capital channels. The transmission effects can be divided into common transmission effects and idiosyncratic transmission effects. Those transmission effects have nonlinear characteristic. With the economic restructuring of stimulating domestic demand slowly, the transmission effect of international factors to Chinese inflation will be weakened. All international factors can be synthesized six common factors. Currently, the international cost factor, international energy factor, international monetary factor and foreign trade factor have negative nonlinear transmission effects to inflation and the international cost factor and international energy factor have larger negative transmission effect than the others. The exiting of quantitative easing monetary policy of U. S. A, the rising of dollar index, the decline of raw material prices and energy prices of international will have negative nonlinear idiosyncratic transmission effect. On the whole, international factors have inhibitory effects to inflation.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 国际因素 传导效应 经济结构转变 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]