中国居民消费与碳排放强度关系动态交互分析  

Interactive Dynamic Response between Residents' Consumption and Carbon Emission Intensity of China

作　　者：汝醒君[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第2期23-29,共7页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：杭州电子科技大学科研启动基金(KYS035614025)

摘　　要：基于1980-2010年的统计数据,构建居民消费水平和碳排放强度间的自相量回归模型,运用协整分析、脉冲响应函数和动态方差分解法,从不同视角对两组变量的动态交互响应关系进行研究分析,目的是为了解释我国居民消费水平和碳排放强度之间的内在联系、互动机制以及发展趋势。分析结果表明:尽管在短期内出现波动,我国居民消费水平和碳排放强度之间存在长期均衡关系;碳排放强度对居民消费的脉冲响应在短期内是正向加强的,此后逐渐减弱直至收敛。碳强度变化对居民消费水平的冲击具有明显的时效性和波动性;方差分解时序值显示,长期而言,碳排放强度对居民消费水平的影响较低且呈增长趋势,而居民消费水平对碳排放强度贡献度显著且增长迅速。Based on statistics from 1980 to 2010, the Vector Auto-Regression model is established between residents＇ consumption and carbon emission intensity of China. This paper analyzes and forecasts the relationship of the interactive dynamic response of the two sets variables by using cointegration, impulse response function and dy- namic variance decomposition method so as to explain the inner link, interactive mechanisms and trends between consumption level and carbon emission intensity. The result shows that there exists a long-term equilibrium between the two variables; the impulse response of carbon emission intensity to the residents＇ consumption is reinforced in a forward direction within a short period of time ; then it will wear off. There exits an obvious timeliness and volatility in the impact of carbon emission intensity on the residents＇ consumption level. The time series value of the variance decomposition shows that the influences of carbon emission intensity on residents＇ consumption level in the long term stays lower and lower, whereas the impact of residents＇ consumption level on the carbon emission intensity is signifi- cant and growing rapidly.

关 键 词：居民消费水平 碳排放强度 向量自回归模型 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]