世界主要粮食出口国的粮食生产潜力分析  

Analysis on the Potential Grain Productivity of the World's Major Grain Exporting Countries

作　　者：周曙东[1] 赵明正[1] 陈康[1] 肖宵[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2015年第6期91-104,112,共14页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(编号:11&ZD046;13&ZD160);江苏省研究生培养创新工程项目(编号:KYLX_0606);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目;国家现代农业(花生)产业技术体系(编号:CARS-14-10B)

摘　　要：本研究利用FAO的GAEZ数据库资料测算世界主要粮食出口国潜在耕地数量及分布,探讨主要粮食出口国潜在耕地开发限制因素,通过分析确定具有较大粮食出口潜力的合作国,并在各国土地开发法律政策限制、土地复种等条件下测算这些国家的潜在粮食产量、生产波动性、投资政治风险,归纳不同国家的收获季节差异和粮食禁止出口风险。研究发现,阿根廷的大豆和玉米、澳大利亚的小麦、法国的玉米和小麦、巴拉圭的小麦和大豆、乌克兰的玉米和小麦、美国和南非的玉米生产波动性较高。Based on GAEZ database of FAO,this paper estimates quantities of potential arable land and their distribution of major grain export countries,discusses constraint factors in exploring potential arable land,identifies cooperative partners which posses large exporting potential of grain.Under the consideration of legislation constraints in land use,and multiple-cropping index,we estimated potential grain productivity,production fluctuation of the major grain in the world's major grain exporting countries,as well as the political risks of investment in this countries,summarizes the differences between harvest period and export ban risks on grain in different countries.We found there are high level of grain production fluctuation in the soybean and corn production in Argentina,wheat production in Australia,maize and wheat production in France,wheat and soybean production in Paraguay,maize and wheat production in Ukraine,maize production in United States of American and South Africa.A series of policy recommendation are proposed finally.

关 键 词：粮食安全 粮食生产潜力 生产波动性 投资政治风险 主要出口国 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济] F746