林改背景下中国原木供需和进口贸易预测——基于CGTM模型的空间均衡分析  

The Prediction of Supply,Demand and Import of Logs in China Under the Collective Forest Tenure Reform: Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Using CGTM Model

作　　者：刘菲[1] 胡明形[1] 胡延杰[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国林业科学研究院林业科技信息研究所,北京100091

出　　处：《世界林业研究》2015年第3期53-56,共4页World Forestry Research

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项集体林区政策性森林灾害保险制度设计与保费精算技术研究(200904003-5);国家林业局948技术引进项目基于全球化背景的林产品贸易评估技术引进(2013-4-69)

摘　　要：随着中国对原木需求量的日益增加,中国原木进口量加速扩大。为有效提高中国原木的自给量,保证中国的木材供给安全,中国推行了新一轮集体林权制度改革政策。文中在集体林权制度改革的背景下,通过CGTM模型和计量经济模型估计中国原木供给方程,并利用该模型预测中国原木供需量和净进口贸易量的变化趋势,结果显示林权改革政策对原木供给有积极促进作用,但由于供给的增长幅度并不能满足需求的增长,原木的净进口量还将继续增加,进口原木市场结构将进一步优化。With the increasing demand tbr logs in China, the import of logs is accelerated expansion. A new policy of collective forest tenure reform has been introduced in our country to improve the quantity of self- supply and ensure the safety of the supply of logs. This paper estimates the log supply equation and forecasts the trend of supply and demand of logs and trade of net import with the CGTM model and econometric model under the background of collective forest tenure reform in China. The results show that the policy of collective forest tenure reform plays a positive role in supplying of logs. The net import of log will continue to grow as the growth rate of the supply which cannot meet the growing demand, and the structure of imported log market will be further optimized.

关 键 词：原木供给 进口贸易 集体林权改革 CGTM模型 中国 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济] F752.654