道路甩挂运输系统安全水平评价  

Assessment of Safety Level of Highway Trailer Pick-up Transport System

作　　者：赵鲁华[1] 曹庆贵[2] 李玉善[1] 任传祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学交通学院,山东青岛266590 [2]山东科技大学矿业与安全工程学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2015年第6期148-153,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51474138)

摘　　要：为了分析在我国目前的政策、技术等环境水平下甩挂运输系统的安全水平,在分析其发展风险因素的基础上,将甩挂运输系统划分为子系统。建立了各子系统与系统安全水平之间的因果关系模型,并分析了因果反馈环。绘制了系统动力学流图,并进行了仿真分析。结果表明:甩挂运输系统安全水平2013年为81.673 7,2015年为89.461 3,等级为良。这说明随着运输组织调度能力、安全技术水平的提高和政策环境的改善,系统安全水平偏低但会不断提高,在发展初期需要加强安全管理。通过子系统的灵敏性分析发现:甩挂运输政策环境和甩挂车辆安全技术水平是对系统安全水平影响较大的因素,因此应尽快完善相关政策法规,并提高对甩挂车辆的安全投入,以促进甩挂运输的安全、快速发展。In order to analyze the safety level of highway trailer pick-up transport system in the environment of Chinese current policy and technology, the trailer pick-up transport system is divided into subsystems according to the analyzed risk factors of development. The causal relationship model between each subsystem and system safety level is developed, and the causal feedback loop is analyzed. The system dynamics flow diagram is given, and the simulation analysis is made. The result shows that the safety level of trailer pick-up transport system is 81. 673 7 in 2013 and 89. 461 3 in 2015, the rank is good. It shows that with the improvement of organization scheduling ability, safety technical level and policy environment, the system safety level is relatively lower, but it would be improved continuously and the safety management needs to be strengthened in the early stage of development. Through the sensitivity analysis of subsystems, it is found that the policy environment and the vehicle safety technology level are the main factors that influence the overall system safety level of trailer pick-up transport. Therefore it should perfect the related policies and rules as soon as possible and increase the safety investment on trailer pick-up vehicles to promote the safety and rapid development of trailer pick-up transport.

关 键 词：交通工程 甩挂运输系统 系统动力学 安全水平 模型 仿真 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]